Apple’s decision to deprioritize mixed-reality headsets in favor of lighter smart glasses has anchored trader sentiment, with Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reporting in mid-2026 that a full Vision Pro successor remains on ice. Resources have shifted after the modest M5 hardware refresh in late 2025, the cancellation of the cheaper Vision Air variant, and persistent challenges around weight, cost, and consumer adoption of the original $3,499 model. Development timelines now point to a possible late-2028 or 2029 launch at earliest, well beyond 2026. While recent macOS code leaks hint at continued internal work on a related codename, no official announcements, supply-chain signals, or regulatory filings support a 2026 release. An unforeseen component breakthrough or accelerated testing could still compress the schedule, though current evidence makes that scenario remote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
はい
6% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to deprioritize mixed-reality headsets in favor of lighter smart glasses has anchored trader sentiment, with Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reporting in mid-2026 that a full Vision Pro successor remains on ice. Resources have shifted after the modest M5 hardware refresh in late 2025, the cancellation of the cheaper Vision Air variant, and persistent challenges around weight, cost, and consumer adoption of the original $3,499 model. Development timelines now point to a possible late-2028 or 2029 launch at earliest, well beyond 2026. While recent macOS code leaks hint at continued internal work on a related codename, no official announcements, supply-chain signals, or regulatory filings support a 2026 release. An unforeseen component breakthrough or accelerated testing could still compress the schedule, though current evidence makes that scenario remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$5,987終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to deprioritize mixed-reality headsets in favor of lighter smart glasses has anchored trader sentiment, with Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reporting in mid-2026 that a full Vision Pro successor remains on ice. Resources have shifted after the modest M5 hardware refresh in late 2025, the cancellation of the cheaper Vision Air variant, and persistent challenges around weight, cost, and consumer adoption of the original $3,499 model. Development timelines now point to a possible late-2028 or 2029 launch at earliest, well beyond 2026. While recent macOS code leaks hint at continued internal work on a related codename, no official announcements, supply-chain signals, or regulatory filings support a 2026 release. An unforeseen component breakthrough or accelerated testing could still compress the schedule, though current evidence makes that scenario remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$5,987終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s decision to deprioritize mixed-reality headsets in favor of lighter smart glasses has anchored trader sentiment, with Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reporting in mid-2026 that a full Vision Pro successor remains on ice. Resources have shifted after the modest M5 hardware refresh in late 2025, the cancellation of the cheaper Vision Air variant, and persistent challenges around weight, cost, and consumer adoption of the original $3,499 model. Development timelines now point to a possible late-2028 or 2029 launch at earliest, well beyond 2026. While recent macOS code leaks hint at continued internal work on a related codename, no official announcements, supply-chain signals, or regulatory filings support a 2026 release. An unforeseen component breakthrough or accelerated testing could still compress the schedule, though current evidence makes that scenario remote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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