Recent polling trends for the September 20 Berlin state election show the Greens ahead of the SPD in most surveys, with the latter posting lower support amid its national difficulties and role as junior partner in the CDU-led coalition. Factors such as voter priorities on housing, climate policy, and local governance have sustained this edge for the Greens, whose candidates emphasize environmental measures while the SPD faces criticism over economic delivery. Multiple August surveys place the Greens several points ahead, aligning with the 74.5% implied probability that traders assign to them receiving more votes. No major late developments have reversed these patterns in the final month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日グリューネ
75% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/20
グリューネ
75% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/20
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling trends for the September 20 Berlin state election show the Greens ahead of the SPD in most surveys, with the latter posting lower support amid its national difficulties and role as junior partner in the CDU-led coalition. Factors such as voter priorities on housing, climate policy, and local governance have sustained this edge for the Greens, whose candidates emphasize environmental measures while the SPD faces criticism over economic delivery. Multiple August surveys place the Greens several points ahead, aligning with the 74.5% implied probability that traders assign to them receiving more votes. No major late developments have reversed these patterns in the final month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
音量
$41終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling trends for the September 20 Berlin state election show the Greens ahead of the SPD in most surveys, with the latter posting lower support amid its national difficulties and role as junior partner in the CDU-led coalition. Factors such as voter priorities on housing, climate policy, and local governance have sustained this edge for the Greens, whose candidates emphasize environmental measures while the SPD faces criticism over economic delivery. Multiple August surveys place the Greens several points ahead, aligning with the 74.5% implied probability that traders assign to them receiving more votes. No major late developments have reversed these patterns in the final month.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Grüne and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
音量
$41終了日
2026/09/20マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling trends for the September 20 Berlin state election show the Greens ahead of the SPD in most surveys, with the latter posting lower support amid its national difficulties and role as junior partner in the CDU-led coalition. Factors such as voter priorities on housing, climate policy, and local governance have sustained this edge for the Greens, whose candidates emphasize environmental measures while the SPD faces criticism over economic delivery. Multiple August surveys place the Greens several points ahead, aligning with the 74.5% implied probability that traders assign to them receiving more votes. No major late developments have reversed these patterns in the final month.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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