The commanding 100% trader consensus on 30k-40k votes cast in the Clacton by-election reflects standard patterns of lower participation in UK parliamentary by-elections, which routinely draw 10-20 percentage points below general election levels due to reduced media focus, absent national party mobilization, and voter fatigue. The contest, triggered by Nigel Farage’s resignation and held on 13 August 2026 with a record 34 candidates including multiple independents and novelty entrants, produced a confirmed turnout of 44.4% (35,111 votes) from an electorate of roughly 79,785— squarely within the range and higher than some comparable low-profile by-elections yet below the prior general election figure. Late developments such as the extended ballot paper and limited mainstream party involvement reinforced expectations of modest mobilization. Scenarios that could still have altered the outcome include sudden high-profile campaign surges or unusually strong local turnout drives, though none materialized to shift the final verified count.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日3万〜4万 100.0%
1万未満 <1%
1万〜2万 <1%
2万～3万 <1%
$58,316 Vol.
$58,316 Vol.
2026/08/13
1万未満
いいえ
1万〜2万
いいえ
2万～3万
いいえ
3万〜4万
はい
4万〜5万
いいえ
5万〜6万
いいえ
6万以上
いいえ
3万〜4万 100.0%
1万未満 <1%
1万〜2万 <1%
2万～3万 <1%
$58,316 Vol.
$58,316 Vol.
2026/08/13
1万未満
$1,082 Vol.
いいえ
1万〜2万
$16,258 Vol.
いいえ
2万～3万
$11,654 Vol.
いいえ
3万〜4万
$18,749 Vol.
はい
4万〜5万
$6,431 Vol.
いいえ
5万〜6万
$1,753 Vol.
いいえ
6万以上
$2,388 Vol.
いいえ
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).The commanding 100% trader consensus on 30k-40k votes cast in the Clacton by-election reflects standard patterns of lower participation in UK parliamentary by-elections, which routinely draw 10-20 percentage points below general election levels due to reduced media focus, absent national party mobilization, and voter fatigue. The contest, triggered by Nigel Farage’s resignation and held on 13 August 2026 with a record 34 candidates including multiple independents and novelty entrants, produced a confirmed turnout of 44.4% (35,111 votes) from an electorate of roughly 79,785— squarely within the range and higher than some comparable low-profile by-elections yet below the prior general election figure. Late developments such as the extended ballot paper and limited mainstream party involvement reinforced expectations of modest mobilization. Scenarios that could still have altered the outcome include sudden high-profile campaign surges or unusually strong local turnout drives, though none materialized to shift the final verified count.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
マーケット開始日： Jul 17, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
音量
$58,316終了日
2026/08/13マーケット開始日
Jul 17, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).The commanding 100% trader consensus on 30k-40k votes cast in the Clacton by-election reflects standard patterns of lower participation in UK parliamentary by-elections, which routinely draw 10-20 percentage points below general election levels due to reduced media focus, absent national party mobilization, and voter fatigue. The contest, triggered by Nigel Farage’s resignation and held on 13 August 2026 with a record 34 candidates including multiple independents and novelty entrants, produced a confirmed turnout of 44.4% (35,111 votes) from an electorate of roughly 79,785— squarely within the range and higher than some comparable low-profile by-elections yet below the prior general election figure. Late developments such as the extended ballot paper and limited mainstream party involvement reinforced expectations of modest mobilization. Scenarios that could still have altered the outcome include sudden high-profile campaign surges or unusually strong local turnout drives, though none materialized to shift the final verified count.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held on August 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
音量
$58,316終了日
2026/08/13マーケット開始日
Jul 17, 2026, 4:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
The commanding 100% trader consensus on 30k-40k votes cast in the Clacton by-election reflects standard patterns of lower participation in UK parliamentary by-elections, which routinely draw 10-20 percentage points below general election levels due to reduced media focus, absent national party mobilization, and voter fatigue. The contest, triggered by Nigel Farage’s resignation and held on 13 August 2026 with a record 34 candidates including multiple independents and novelty entrants, produced a confirmed turnout of 44.4% (35,111 votes) from an electorate of roughly 79,785— squarely within the range and higher than some comparable low-profile by-elections yet below the prior general election figure. Late developments such as the extended ballot paper and limited mainstream party involvement reinforced expectations of modest mobilization. Scenarios that could still have altered the outcome include sudden high-profile campaign surges or unusually strong local turnout drives, though none materialized to shift the final verified count.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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