Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range highest at 49.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s June 18-20 window because it aligns closely with his recent baseline activity of roughly 13-21 posts per day, a pace documented across multiple prior three-day Polymarket resolutions. The 65-89 bin at 35% captures the upside from typical engagement spikes or reply threads, while sub-40 and 90+ outcomes remain thin at under 8% combined, reflecting limited expectation of either a full quiet period or an extended rant cycle. With no major product launches, regulatory hearings, or political flashpoints currently scheduled for those dates, the market reflects steady-state posting volume rather than event-driven surges, consistent with patterns seen in comparable mid-June and late-May resolutions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日40-64 50%
65-89 35%
<40 8%
90-114 6.3%
新規
$41,101 Vol.
新規
$41,101 Vol.
2026/06/20
<40
8%
40-64
50%
65-89
35%
90-114
6%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 50%
65-89 35%
<40 8%
90-114 6.3%
新規
$41,101 Vol.
新規
$41,101 Vol.
2026/06/20
<40
$1,636 Vol.
8%
40-64
$667 Vol.
50%
65-89
$1,963 Vol.
35%
90-114
$1,458 Vol.
6%
115-139
$1,005 Vol.
1%
140-164
$512 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$5,948 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$14,869 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$6,964 Vol.
<1%
240+
$6,079 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 18 12:00 PM ET to June 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range highest at 49.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s June 18-20 window because it aligns closely with his recent baseline activity of roughly 13-21 posts per day, a pace documented across multiple prior three-day Polymarket resolutions. The 65-89 bin at 35% captures the upside from typical engagement spikes or reply threads, while sub-40 and 90+ outcomes remain thin at under 8% combined, reflecting limited expectation of either a full quiet period or an extended rant cycle. With no major product launches, regulatory hearings, or political flashpoints currently scheduled for those dates, the market reflects steady-state posting volume rather than event-driven surges, consistent with patterns seen in comparable mid-June and late-May resolutions.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 18 12:00 PM ET to June 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Jun 15, 2026, 12:13 PM ET
音量
$41,101終了日
2026/06/20マーケット開始日
Jun 15, 2026, 12:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 18 12:00 PM ET to June 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range highest at 49.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s June 18-20 window because it aligns closely with his recent baseline activity of roughly 13-21 posts per day, a pace documented across multiple prior three-day Polymarket resolutions. The 65-89 bin at 35% captures the upside from typical engagement spikes or reply threads, while sub-40 and 90+ outcomes remain thin at under 8% combined, reflecting limited expectation of either a full quiet period or an extended rant cycle. With no major product launches, regulatory hearings, or political flashpoints currently scheduled for those dates, the market reflects steady-state posting volume rather than event-driven surges, consistent with patterns seen in comparable mid-June and late-May resolutions.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 18 12:00 PM ET to June 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$41,101終了日
2026/06/20マーケット開始日
Jun 15, 2026, 12:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are pricing the 40-64 tweet range highest at 49.5% implied probability for Elon Musk’s June 18-20 window because it aligns closely with his recent baseline activity of roughly 13-21 posts per day, a pace documented across multiple prior three-day Polymarket resolutions. The 65-89 bin at 35% captures the upside from typical engagement spikes or reply threads, while sub-40 and 90+ outcomes remain thin at under 8% combined, reflecting limited expectation of either a full quiet period or an extended rant cycle. With no major product launches, regulatory hearings, or political flashpoints currently scheduled for those dates, the market reflects steady-state posting volume rather than event-driven surges, consistent with patterns seen in comparable mid-June and late-May resolutions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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