Elon Musk’s established posting rhythm on X drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 800–1,000+ tweets for October 2026. Recent weekly and multi-day brackets have settled in ranges consistent with 23–35 posts per day, including 180–199 over seven days and 40–64 over three days in September, reflecting steady output tied to platform commentary, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and cultural topics. Traders price the 1,000+ outcome highest because sustained daily volume near the upper end of his recent range can push a full month above that threshold, while lower brackets capture the variability seen in quieter stretches. October’s calendar lacks unique catalysts that would dramatically alter this baseline, leaving the competitive spread among mid-to-high brackets as the clearest expression of observed patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1000+ 23%
880-919 13%
800-839 13%
840-879 13%
$101,863 Vol.
$101,863 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
1%
640-659
1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
2%
720-739
2%
740-759
2%
760-779
4%
780-799
9%
800-839
13%
840-879
13%
880-919
13%
920-959
13%
960-999
13%
1000+
23%
1000+ 23%
880-919 13%
800-839 13%
840-879 13%
$101,863 Vol.
$101,863 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
<1%
160-179
<1%
180-199
<1%
200-219
<1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500-519
<1%
520-539
<1%
540-559
<1%
560-579
<1%
580-599
<1%
600-619
<1%
620-639
1%
640-659
1%
660-679
1%
680-699
1%
700-719
2%
720-739
2%
740-759
2%
760-779
4%
780-799
9%
800-839
13%
840-879
13%
880-919
13%
920-959
13%
960-999
13%
1000+
23%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s established posting rhythm on X drives the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 800–1,000+ tweets for October 2026. Recent weekly and multi-day brackets have settled in ranges consistent with 23–35 posts per day, including 180–199 over seven days and 40–64 over three days in September, reflecting steady output tied to platform commentary, Tesla and SpaceX updates, and cultural topics. Traders price the 1,000+ outcome highest because sustained daily volume near the upper end of his recent range can push a full month above that threshold, while lower brackets capture the variability seen in quieter stretches. October’s calendar lacks unique catalysts that would dramatically alter this baseline, leaving the competitive spread among mid-to-high brackets as the clearest expression of observed patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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