**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to “No” on federal capital gains tax rates being cut by the end of 2026 because the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), enacted in 2025, permanently extended the existing 0/15/20% long-term rate structure rather than lowering it further.** The legislation prevented the scheduled reversion to higher pre-TCJA rates after 2025 but left top marginal rates and brackets unchanged for 2026. No major legislation has since advanced to reduce those rates. Recent administration discussions about indexing gains to inflation or expanding home-sale exclusions remain proposals or bills still in committee, with limited legislative momentum before year-end. Scheduled congressional activity and the absence of new rate-reduction measures in the current session support the market’s assessment that additional cuts are unlikely to occur within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
19% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
19% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to “No” on federal capital gains tax rates being cut by the end of 2026 because the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), enacted in 2025, permanently extended the existing 0/15/20% long-term rate structure rather than lowering it further.**
The legislation prevented the scheduled reversion to higher pre-TCJA rates after 2025 but left top marginal rates and brackets unchanged for 2026. No major legislation has since advanced to reduce those rates. Recent administration discussions about indexing gains to inflation or expanding home-sale exclusions remain proposals or bills still in committee, with limited legislative momentum before year-end.
Scheduled congressional activity and the absence of new rate-reduction measures in the current session support the market’s assessment that additional cuts are unlikely to occur within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
音量
$95終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to “No” on federal capital gains tax rates being cut by the end of 2026 because the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), enacted in 2025, permanently extended the existing 0/15/20% long-term rate structure rather than lowering it further.**
The legislation prevented the scheduled reversion to higher pre-TCJA rates after 2025 but left top marginal rates and brackets unchanged for 2026. No major legislation has since advanced to reduce those rates. Recent administration discussions about indexing gains to inflation or expanding home-sale exclusions remain proposals or bills still in committee, with limited legislative momentum before year-end.
Scheduled congressional activity and the absence of new rate-reduction measures in the current session support the market’s assessment that additional cuts are unlikely to occur within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that reduces the federal taxes individuals owe on long-term capital gains by changing how those gains are taxed or calculated is enacted into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying change does not need to apply to all taxpayers or all long-term capital gains. Legislation will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" if it directly reduces or eliminates federal tax owed on long-term capital gains for individuals generally or for a defined class of taxpayers or gains, including through a tax rate reduction, exemption or exclusion, change in applicable thresholds, change in how basis or gains are calculated, or another statutory mechanism. The qualifying change can take effect outside of this market's timeframe.
Temporary reductions or breaks will count. Changes that only defer when tax is paid, or that reduce a taxpayer's overall federal tax liability without specifically changing the taxation or calculation of long-term capital gains, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$95終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 83% implied probability to “No” on federal capital gains tax rates being cut by the end of 2026 because the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), enacted in 2025, permanently extended the existing 0/15/20% long-term rate structure rather than lowering it further.** The legislation prevented the scheduled reversion to higher pre-TCJA rates after 2025 but left top marginal rates and brackets unchanged for 2026. No major legislation has since advanced to reduce those rates. Recent administration discussions about indexing gains to inflation or expanding home-sale exclusions remain proposals or bills still in committee, with limited legislative momentum before year-end. Scheduled congressional activity and the absence of new rate-reduction measures in the current session support the market’s assessment that additional cuts are unlikely to occur within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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