Trump's repeated pledges since late 2025 for a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend funded by import duties have sustained trader interest in a "Yes" outcome, yet implementation hinges on congressional legislation that remains stalled. Revenue from active Section 232 tariffs has risen sharply, but a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key emergency tariffs, triggering substantial refunds to importers and shrinking the net pool available. Analysts note that even optimistic projections fall short of covering broad-based payments while also addressing deficit reduction, and no bill has advanced to enactment by mid-2026. With the resolution deadline six months away, the even odds reflect uncertainty over whether lawmakers will approve a program, revised tariff authorities can replenish funds, or timing constraints prevent action before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/12/31
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's repeated pledges since late 2025 for a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend funded by import duties have sustained trader interest in a "Yes" outcome, yet implementation hinges on congressional legislation that remains stalled. Revenue from active Section 232 tariffs has risen sharply, but a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key emergency tariffs, triggering substantial refunds to importers and shrinking the net pool available. Analysts note that even optimistic projections fall short of covering broad-based payments while also addressing deficit reduction, and no bill has advanced to enactment by mid-2026. With the resolution deadline six months away, the even odds reflect uncertainty over whether lawmakers will approve a program, revised tariff authorities can replenish funds, or timing constraints prevent action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ET
音量
$9終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's repeated pledges since late 2025 for a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend funded by import duties have sustained trader interest in a "Yes" outcome, yet implementation hinges on congressional legislation that remains stalled. Revenue from active Section 232 tariffs has risen sharply, but a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key emergency tariffs, triggering substantial refunds to importers and shrinking the net pool available. Analysts note that even optimistic projections fall short of covering broad-based payments while also addressing deficit reduction, and no bill has advanced to enactment by mid-2026. With the resolution deadline six months away, the even odds reflect uncertainty over whether lawmakers will approve a program, revised tariff authorities can replenish funds, or timing constraints prevent action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$9終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 3:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's repeated pledges since late 2025 for a $2,000-per-person tariff dividend funded by import duties have sustained trader interest in a "Yes" outcome, yet implementation hinges on congressional legislation that remains stalled. Revenue from active Section 232 tariffs has risen sharply, but a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling invalidated key emergency tariffs, triggering substantial refunds to importers and shrinking the net pool available. Analysts note that even optimistic projections fall short of covering broad-based payments while also addressing deficit reduction, and no bill has advanced to enactment by mid-2026. With the resolution deadline six months away, the even odds reflect uncertainty over whether lawmakers will approve a program, revised tariff authorities can replenish funds, or timing constraints prevent action before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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