**Grok 5 remains in active training on xAI’s Colossus supercluster as of late August 2026, with no confirmed release date after missing its original late-2025 target, Q1 2026 window, and Q2 2026 deadline.** Traders have adjusted odds sharply lower for any first-half or mid-2026 launch, reflecting the pattern of delays and xAI’s decision to ship Grok 4.5 in July and Grok 4.6 in August as interim flagships optimized for speed and coding. The model’s reported 6-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts scale and 1.5-million-token context ambitions continue to fuel long-term interest, but the absence of new benchmarks or firm timelines keeps near-term resolution probabilities modest. Key upcoming catalysts include any end-of-2026 signals from xAI or Musk alongside competitive releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google that could shift relative positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/08/31
8月31日
<1%
10月31日
32%
11月30日
50%
12月31日
70%
$6,580 Vol.
8月31日
$3,006 Vol.
<1%
10月31日
$340 Vol.
32%
11月30日
$0 Vol.
50%
12月31日
$1,711 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains in active training on xAI’s Colossus supercluster as of late August 2026, with no confirmed release date after missing its original late-2025 target, Q1 2026 window, and Q2 2026 deadline.** Traders have adjusted odds sharply lower for any first-half or mid-2026 launch, reflecting the pattern of delays and xAI’s decision to ship Grok 4.5 in July and Grok 4.6 in August as interim flagships optimized for speed and coding. The model’s reported 6-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts scale and 1.5-million-token context ambitions continue to fuel long-term interest, but the absence of new benchmarks or firm timelines keeps near-term resolution probabilities modest. Key upcoming catalysts include any end-of-2026 signals from xAI or Musk alongside competitive releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google that could shift relative positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
音量
$6,580終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains in active training on xAI’s Colossus supercluster as of late August 2026, with no confirmed release date after missing its original late-2025 target, Q1 2026 window, and Q2 2026 deadline.** Traders have adjusted odds sharply lower for any first-half or mid-2026 launch, reflecting the pattern of delays and xAI’s decision to ship Grok 4.5 in July and Grok 4.6 in August as interim flagships optimized for speed and coding. The model’s reported 6-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts scale and 1.5-million-token context ambitions continue to fuel long-term interest, but the absence of new benchmarks or firm timelines keeps near-term resolution probabilities modest. Key upcoming catalysts include any end-of-2026 signals from xAI or Musk alongside competitive releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google that could shift relative positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$6,580終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Grok 5 remains in active training on xAI’s Colossus supercluster as of late August 2026, with no confirmed release date after missing its original late-2025 target, Q1 2026 window, and Q2 2026 deadline.** Traders have adjusted odds sharply lower for any first-half or mid-2026 launch, reflecting the pattern of delays and xAI’s decision to ship Grok 4.5 in July and Grok 4.6 in August as interim flagships optimized for speed and coding. The model’s reported 6-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts scale and 1.5-million-token context ambitions continue to fuel long-term interest, but the absence of new benchmarks or firm timelines keeps near-term resolution probabilities modest. Key upcoming catalysts include any end-of-2026 signals from xAI or Musk alongside competitive releases from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google that could shift relative positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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