Recent short-term forecasts from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Milan highs likely peaking near 34–35°C on August 3, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence over the Po Valley that limits cloud cover and promotes daytime heating, alongside typical August insolation and urban heat-island effects. Model ensembles show modest spread due to uncertain boundary-layer moisture and weak frontal influences, keeping the probability mass tightly clustered around these values while capping odds for 36°C or above. Historical climatology for early August places the 1991–2020 average daily maximum near 29–30°C, so current conditions reflect above-normal warmth without extreme heatwave signals. Updated model runs and observational data from Milan Linate or Malpensa stations over the next 48 hours will refine the precise maximum and inform any last-minute shifts in trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月3日のミラノの最高気温は?
35°C 37%
34°C 25%
33°C or below 17%
36°C 17%
33°C or below
17%
34°C
25%
35°C
37%
36°C
17%
37°C
6%
38°C
2%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
35°C 37%
34°C 25%
33°C or below 17%
36°C 17%
33°C or below
17%
34°C
25%
35°C
37%
36°C
17%
37°C
6%
38°C
2%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent short-term forecasts from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate Milan highs likely peaking near 34–35°C on August 3, driven by persistent high-pressure subsidence over the Po Valley that limits cloud cover and promotes daytime heating, alongside typical August insolation and urban heat-island effects. Model ensembles show modest spread due to uncertain boundary-layer moisture and weak frontal influences, keeping the probability mass tightly clustered around these values while capping odds for 36°C or above. Historical climatology for early August places the 1991–2020 average daily maximum near 29–30°C, so current conditions reflect above-normal warmth without extreme heatwave signals. Updated model runs and observational data from Milan Linate or Malpensa stations over the next 48 hours will refine the precise maximum and inform any last-minute shifts in trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日


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