Recent official forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and European models point to a daily maximum near 21–22 °C in Warsaw on July 9, following the early-July moderation after late-June heatwave records. This positioning stems from a weakening high-pressure ridge giving way to Atlantic air advection, increased cloud cover, and light precipitation chances that limit daytime heating. Ensemble runs cluster tightly around these values, with small timing differences in clearing skies or wind shifts able to swing the peak by 1–2 °C and explain why 20 °C leads at 35 % implied probability while 22 °C or higher sits near 15 %. Historical July averages near 24 °C provide context, yet current steering patterns favor the cooler side of the distribution ahead of the next model updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 9?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 9?
20°C 37%
21°C 28%
19°C 13%
22°C or higher 11.0%
新規
新規
2026/07/09
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
4%
19°C
13%
20°C
37%
21°C
28%
22°C or higher
11%
20°C 37%
21°C 28%
19°C 13%
22°C or higher 11.0%
新規
新規
2026/07/09
12°C or below
$34 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$25 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$22 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$18 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$75 Vol.
1%
18°C
$96 Vol.
4%
19°C
$132 Vol.
13%
20°C
$221 Vol.
37%
21°C
$58 Vol.
28%
22°C or higher
$24 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and European models point to a daily maximum near 21–22 °C in Warsaw on July 9, following the early-July moderation after late-June heatwave records. This positioning stems from a weakening high-pressure ridge giving way to Atlantic air advection, increased cloud cover, and light precipitation chances that limit daytime heating. Ensemble runs cluster tightly around these values, with small timing differences in clearing skies or wind shifts able to swing the peak by 1–2 °C and explain why 20 °C leads at 35 % implied probability while 22 °C or higher sits near 15 %. Historical July averages near 24 °C provide context, yet current steering patterns favor the cooler side of the distribution ahead of the next model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
音量
$880終了日
2026/07/09マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and European models point to a daily maximum near 21–22 °C in Warsaw on July 9, following the early-July moderation after late-June heatwave records. This positioning stems from a weakening high-pressure ridge giving way to Atlantic air advection, increased cloud cover, and light precipitation chances that limit daytime heating. Ensemble runs cluster tightly around these values, with small timing differences in clearing skies or wind shifts able to swing the peak by 1–2 °C and explain why 20 °C leads at 35 % implied probability while 22 °C or higher sits near 15 %. Historical July averages near 24 °C provide context, yet current steering patterns favor the cooler side of the distribution ahead of the next model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$880終了日
2026/07/09マーケット開始日
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETRecent official forecasts from sources like AccuWeather and European models point to a daily maximum near 21–22 °C in Warsaw on July 9, following the early-July moderation after late-June heatwave records. This positioning stems from a weakening high-pressure ridge giving way to Atlantic air advection, increased cloud cover, and light precipitation chances that limit daytime heating. Ensemble runs cluster tightly around these values, with small timing differences in clearing skies or wind shifts able to swing the peak by 1–2 °C and explain why 20 °C leads at 35 % implied probability while 22 °C or higher sits near 15 %. Historical July averages near 24 °C provide context, yet current steering patterns favor the cooler side of the distribution ahead of the next model updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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