Recent hotter-than-expected April inflation readings, including a 1.4% monthly jump in producer prices and elevated core PCE near 3.2%, combined with geopolitical energy price pressures, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.5%—its highest level since mid-2025. This shift has tempered market-implied expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts through 2026, with the policy rate now held steady at 3.50%–3.75% amid a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and resilient nonfarm payrolls. Traders are monitoring upcoming May CPI, retail sales, and FOMC communications for signals on whether persistent inflation above the 2% target will keep long-term yields elevated or allow a modest decline toward historical averages before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$214,585 Vol.
2026/12/31
3.9%
44%
3.8％
30%
3.7%
20%
3.6％
23%
3.5%
40%
3.0%
13%
2.0％
10%
1.0%
4%
$214,585 Vol.
3.9%
$40,504 Vol.
44%
3.8％
$39,358 Vol.
30%
3.7%
$26,365 Vol.
20%
3.6％
$4,730 Vol.
23%
3.5%
$31,523 Vol.
40%
3.0%
$446 Vol.
13%
2.0％
$341 Vol.
10%
1.0%
$39,559 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected April inflation readings, including a 1.4% monthly jump in producer prices and elevated core PCE near 3.2%, combined with geopolitical energy price pressures, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.5%—its highest level since mid-2025. This shift has tempered market-implied expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts through 2026, with the policy rate now held steady at 3.50%–3.75% amid a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and resilient nonfarm payrolls. Traders are monitoring upcoming May CPI, retail sales, and FOMC communications for signals on whether persistent inflation above the 2% target will keep long-term yields elevated or allow a modest decline toward historical averages before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
マーケット開始日： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
音量
$214,585終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent hotter-than-expected April inflation readings, including a 1.4% monthly jump in producer prices and elevated core PCE near 3.2%, combined with geopolitical energy price pressures, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.5%—its highest level since mid-2025. This shift has tempered market-implied expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts through 2026, with the policy rate now held steady at 3.50%–3.75% amid a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and resilient nonfarm payrolls. Traders are monitoring upcoming May CPI, retail sales, and FOMC communications for signals on whether persistent inflation above the 2% target will keep long-term yields elevated or allow a modest decline toward historical averages before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
音量
$214,585終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent hotter-than-expected April inflation readings, including a 1.4% monthly jump in producer prices and elevated core PCE near 3.2%, combined with geopolitical energy price pressures, have driven the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.5%—its highest level since mid-2025. This shift has tempered market-implied expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts through 2026, with the policy rate now held steady at 3.50%–3.75% amid a stable labor market showing 4.3% unemployment and resilient nonfarm payrolls. Traders are monitoring upcoming May CPI, retail sales, and FOMC communications for signals on whether persistent inflation above the 2% target will keep long-term yields elevated or allow a modest decline toward historical averages before 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問