Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月3日～ 8月9日の6.5級以上の地震は何回ありますか？
8月3日～ 8月9日の6.5級以上の地震は何回ありますか？
0 47%
1 31%
2 18%
3 4%
新規
新規
2026/08/10
0
47%
1
31%
2
18%
3
4%
4
2%
5
1%
>5
1%
0 47%
1 31%
2 18%
3 4%
新規
新規
2026/08/10
0
$1,157 Vol.
47%
1
$205 Vol.
31%
2
$92 Vol.
18%
3
$77 Vol.
4%
4
$126 Vol.
2%
5
$134 Vol.
1%
>5
$91 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
音量
$1,882終了日
2026/08/10マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$1,882終了日
2026/08/10マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETGlobal seismic activity follows a roughly Poisson distribution with an average of 1–3 magnitude 6.5+ events per week, derived from USGS historical catalogs showing ~100–150 such quakes annually. This baseline, combined with high short-term variability from aftershock sequences and regional clustering, supports the market's strong preference for 0 (47%) or 1 (30.5%) events during the August 3–9 window. A 6.8 quake struck Japan on July 28 with no major ongoing aftershock sequences or subduction-zone alerts reported by monitoring agencies as of early August, leaving no clear catalyst for elevated rates. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries and real-time global catalogs will provide the primary data updates that could shift implied probabilities if new activity emerges.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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