**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurred worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 88.5% implied probability for zero events.** Official catalogs from the USGS and VolcanoDiscovery record only lower-magnitude activity in the interval, including M6.0 events in the Banda Sea (Aug 24) and near Somalia (Aug 28), plus scattered M4–M5 quakes in regions such as Japan, Indonesia, Alaska, and the South Atlantic. Global M6.5+ frequency averages roughly 10–15 per month, but events cluster due to aftershock sequences and tectonic interactions along subduction zones and transform faults; the preceding large quakes (M7.7 Indonesia on Aug 14, M7.4 Colombia on Aug 10, M6.7–6.8 Peru on Aug 20) released significant strain without triggering additional great events in the following week. No new foreshock swarms, volcanic unrest, or model consensus from agencies indicated elevated risk during this quiet period. With resolution imminent, the near-absence of fresh seismic data above the threshold has reinforced trader consensus around zero.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月24日から8月30日まで、世界中で6.5以上の地震は何回ありますか？
8月24日から8月30日まで、世界中で6.5以上の地震は何回ありますか？
0 89%
1 11%
2 1.1%
3 <1%
新規
新規
2026/08/30
0
89%
1
11%
2
1%
3
1%
4
<1%
5
<1%
5回を超える
<1%
0 89%
1 11%
2 1.1%
3 <1%
新規
新規
2026/08/30
0
$4,457 Vol.
89%
1
$1,413 Vol.
11%
2
$789 Vol.
1%
3
$1,051 Vol.
1%
4
$551 Vol.
<1%
5
$670 Vol.
<1%
5回を超える
$830 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurred worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 88.5% implied probability for zero events.** Official catalogs from the USGS and VolcanoDiscovery record only lower-magnitude activity in the interval, including M6.0 events in the Banda Sea (Aug 24) and near Somalia (Aug 28), plus scattered M4–M5 quakes in regions such as Japan, Indonesia, Alaska, and the South Atlantic.
Global M6.5+ frequency averages roughly 10–15 per month, but events cluster due to aftershock sequences and tectonic interactions along subduction zones and transform faults; the preceding large quakes (M7.7 Indonesia on Aug 14, M7.4 Colombia on Aug 10, M6.7–6.8 Peru on Aug 20) released significant strain without triggering additional great events in the following week. No new foreshock swarms, volcanic unrest, or model consensus from agencies indicated elevated risk during this quiet period. With resolution imminent, the near-absence of fresh seismic data above the threshold has reinforced trader consensus around zero.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
マーケット開始日： Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
音量
$9,760終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurred worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 88.5% implied probability for zero events.** Official catalogs from the USGS and VolcanoDiscovery record only lower-magnitude activity in the interval, including M6.0 events in the Banda Sea (Aug 24) and near Somalia (Aug 28), plus scattered M4–M5 quakes in regions such as Japan, Indonesia, Alaska, and the South Atlantic.
Global M6.5+ frequency averages roughly 10–15 per month, but events cluster due to aftershock sequences and tectonic interactions along subduction zones and transform faults; the preceding large quakes (M7.7 Indonesia on Aug 14, M7.4 Colombia on Aug 10, M6.7–6.8 Peru on Aug 20) released significant strain without triggering additional great events in the following week. No new foreshock swarms, volcanic unrest, or model consensus from agencies indicated elevated risk during this quiet period. With resolution imminent, the near-absence of fresh seismic data above the threshold has reinforced trader consensus around zero.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
音量
$9,760終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Aug 21, 2026, 10:49 AM ET**No earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater occurred worldwide during August 24–30, 2026, aligning with the market’s strong 88.5% implied probability for zero events.** Official catalogs from the USGS and VolcanoDiscovery record only lower-magnitude activity in the interval, including M6.0 events in the Banda Sea (Aug 24) and near Somalia (Aug 28), plus scattered M4–M5 quakes in regions such as Japan, Indonesia, Alaska, and the South Atlantic. Global M6.5+ frequency averages roughly 10–15 per month, but events cluster due to aftershock sequences and tectonic interactions along subduction zones and transform faults; the preceding large quakes (M7.7 Indonesia on Aug 14, M7.4 Colombia on Aug 10, M6.7–6.8 Peru on Aug 20) released significant strain without triggering additional great events in the following week. No new foreshock swarms, volcanic unrest, or model consensus from agencies indicated elevated risk during this quiet period. With resolution imminent, the near-absence of fresh seismic data above the threshold has reinforced trader consensus around zero.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問