A single magnitude 6.5 earthquake, recorded by the USGS and BMKG on September 11 at 21:23 UTC in the Java Sea (epicenter roughly 126 km NNE of Teluknaga, Indonesia, depth ~372 km), accounts for the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability on exactly one event. No other quake during September 7–13 reached the 6.5 threshold on official catalogs, consistent with typical global rates of roughly one M6.5+ event every few days and the absence of additional signals from regional networks. Deep intraslab activity in the Sunda subduction zone produced the tremor without triggering aftershocks or tsunami alerts. Revised magnitudes or newly confirmed events from slower-reporting stations remain the only realistic paths to a different outcome before final resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日9月7日から9月13日まで、世界中で6.5以上の地震は何回ありますか？
9月7日から9月13日まで、世界中で6.5以上の地震は何回ありますか？
1 100.0%
0 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$8,884 Vol.
$8,884 Vol.
2026/09/14
0
いいえ
1
はい
2
いいえ
3
いいえ
4
いいえ
5
いいえ
5回を超える
いいえ
1 100.0%
0 <1%
2 <1%
3 <1%
$8,884 Vol.
$8,884 Vol.
2026/09/14
0
$3,483 Vol.
いいえ
1
$2,073 Vol.
はい
2
$1,301 Vol.
いいえ
3
$481 Vol.
いいえ
4
$414 Vol.
いいえ
5
$762 Vol.
いいえ
5回を超える
$371 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.A single magnitude 6.5 earthquake, recorded by the USGS and BMKG on September 11 at 21:23 UTC in the Java Sea (epicenter roughly 126 km NNE of Teluknaga, Indonesia, depth ~372 km), accounts for the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability on exactly one event. No other quake during September 7–13 reached the 6.5 threshold on official catalogs, consistent with typical global rates of roughly one M6.5+ event every few days and the absence of additional signals from regional networks. Deep intraslab activity in the Sunda subduction zone produced the tremor without triggering aftershocks or tsunami alerts. Revised magnitudes or newly confirmed events from slower-reporting stations remain the only realistic paths to a different outcome before final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
マーケット開始日： Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
音量
$8,884終了日
2026/09/14マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ET提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.A single magnitude 6.5 earthquake, recorded by the USGS and BMKG on September 11 at 21:23 UTC in the Java Sea (epicenter roughly 126 km NNE of Teluknaga, Indonesia, depth ~372 km), accounts for the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability on exactly one event. No other quake during September 7–13 reached the 6.5 threshold on official catalogs, consistent with typical global rates of roughly one M6.5+ event every few days and the absence of additional signals from regional networks. Deep intraslab activity in the Sunda subduction zone produced the tremor without triggering aftershocks or tsunami alerts. Revised magnitudes or newly confirmed events from slower-reporting stations remain the only realistic paths to a different outcome before final resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
音量
$8,884終了日
2026/09/14マーケット開始日
Sep 4, 2026, 2:45 PM ET提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
A single magnitude 6.5 earthquake, recorded by the USGS and BMKG on September 11 at 21:23 UTC in the Java Sea (epicenter roughly 126 km NNE of Teluknaga, Indonesia, depth ~372 km), accounts for the market’s near-certain 100% implied probability on exactly one event. No other quake during September 7–13 reached the 6.5 threshold on official catalogs, consistent with typical global rates of roughly one M6.5+ event every few days and the absence of additional signals from regional networks. Deep intraslab activity in the Sunda subduction zone produced the tremor without triggering aftershocks or tsunami alerts. Revised magnitudes or newly confirmed events from slower-reporting stations remain the only realistic paths to a different outcome before final resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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