Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins in Georgia’s November 2026 Senate election while Raphael Warnock’s term runs through 2029, placing the burden for any departure squarely on Ossoff’s reelection outcome. Recent polling averages show Ossoff ahead by roughly seven points, with individual surveys from InsiderAdvantage, Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research, and Fox News/Beacon placing him between 47-56 percent. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic, citing Ossoff’s substantial fundraising edge—over $20 million raised in the second quarter alone and $42 million cash on hand—against Collins’s far smaller totals. Georgia’s swing-state dynamics and the narrow 2024 presidential margin create some residual uncertainty, yet the current polling margin and campaign resources underpin the 97 percent trader consensus that neither senator will leave office in 2026. A sharp late polling reversal, major scandal, or unexpected national shift remain the primary low-probability paths to altering that view before the November vote and any subsequent runoff.