**Trader sentiment for Shanghai’s July 4 lowest temperature centers on 25–26 °C as the most probable overnight minimum, reflecting current forecast guidance and the city’s typical early-July climatology.** Shanghai’s humid subtropical climate, combined with lingering moisture from the Meiyu frontal system, usually prevents sharp nocturnal cooling; average early-July lows fall in the 24–26 °C range when skies remain cloudy or humid air masses persist. Latest model consensus from sources such as AccuWeather, timeanddate, and BBC Weather points to July 4 lows near 25 °C (77 °F), with daytime highs in the low 30s °C and scattered thundershowers or overcast conditions that limit radiative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading outcomes—26 °C at 38.5 % and 25 °C at 20 %—while slightly cooler 24 °C (17.5 %) remains plausible if convection clears skies briefly after midnight. Warmer outcomes above 27 °C carry lower implied probability because sustained high humidity and cloud cover historically suppress such readings in this period. No significant cold-air advection or clearing high-pressure system is currently forecast, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around the mid-20s °C. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for any shifts in these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on July 4?
26°C 44%
25°C 33%
23°C 8%
27°C 8%
新規
新規
2026/07/04
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
3%
23°C
8%
24°C
5%
25°C
33%
26°C
44%
27°C
8%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
26°C 44%
25°C 33%
23°C 8%
27°C 8%
新規
新規
2026/07/04
20°C or below
$62 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$26 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$31 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
8%
24°C
$0 Vol.
5%
25°C
$13 Vol.
33%
26°C
$3,809 Vol.
44%
27°C
$5 Vol.
8%
28°C
$286 Vol.
1%
29°C
$130 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$344 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Shanghai’s July 4 lowest temperature centers on 25–26 °C as the most probable overnight minimum, reflecting current forecast guidance and the city’s typical early-July climatology.** Shanghai’s humid subtropical climate, combined with lingering moisture from the Meiyu frontal system, usually prevents sharp nocturnal cooling; average early-July lows fall in the 24–26 °C range when skies remain cloudy or humid air masses persist.
Latest model consensus from sources such as AccuWeather, timeanddate, and BBC Weather points to July 4 lows near 25 °C (77 °F), with daytime highs in the low 30s °C and scattered thundershowers or overcast conditions that limit radiative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading outcomes—26 °C at 38.5 % and 25 °C at 20 %—while slightly cooler 24 °C (17.5 %) remains plausible if convection clears skies briefly after midnight. Warmer outcomes above 27 °C carry lower implied probability because sustained high humidity and cloud cover historically suppress such readings in this period.
No significant cold-air advection or clearing high-pressure system is currently forecast, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around the mid-20s °C. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$4,705終了日
2026/07/04マーケット開始日
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Shanghai’s July 4 lowest temperature centers on 25–26 °C as the most probable overnight minimum, reflecting current forecast guidance and the city’s typical early-July climatology.** Shanghai’s humid subtropical climate, combined with lingering moisture from the Meiyu frontal system, usually prevents sharp nocturnal cooling; average early-July lows fall in the 24–26 °C range when skies remain cloudy or humid air masses persist.
Latest model consensus from sources such as AccuWeather, timeanddate, and BBC Weather points to July 4 lows near 25 °C (77 °F), with daytime highs in the low 30s °C and scattered thundershowers or overcast conditions that limit radiative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading outcomes—26 °C at 38.5 % and 25 °C at 20 %—while slightly cooler 24 °C (17.5 %) remains plausible if convection clears skies briefly after midnight. Warmer outcomes above 27 °C carry lower implied probability because sustained high humidity and cloud cover historically suppress such readings in this period.
No significant cold-air advection or clearing high-pressure system is currently forecast, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around the mid-20s °C. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$4,705終了日
2026/07/04マーケット開始日
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Trader sentiment for Shanghai’s July 4 lowest temperature centers on 25–26 °C as the most probable overnight minimum, reflecting current forecast guidance and the city’s typical early-July climatology.** Shanghai’s humid subtropical climate, combined with lingering moisture from the Meiyu frontal system, usually prevents sharp nocturnal cooling; average early-July lows fall in the 24–26 °C range when skies remain cloudy or humid air masses persist. Latest model consensus from sources such as AccuWeather, timeanddate, and BBC Weather points to July 4 lows near 25 °C (77 °F), with daytime highs in the low 30s °C and scattered thundershowers or overcast conditions that limit radiative cooling. These conditions align closely with the market’s leading outcomes—26 °C at 38.5 % and 25 °C at 20 %—while slightly cooler 24 °C (17.5 %) remains plausible if convection clears skies briefly after midnight. Warmer outcomes above 27 °C carry lower implied probability because sustained high humidity and cloud cover historically suppress such readings in this period. No significant cold-air advection or clearing high-pressure system is currently forecast, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around the mid-20s °C. Updated model runs and official guidance over the next 48 hours will provide the clearest signals for any shifts in these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問