Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on July 4?
21°C 48%
20°C 45%
19°C 6%
22°C 4.8%
新規
新規
2026/07/04
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
6%
20°C
45%
21°C
48%
22°C
5%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 48%
20°C 45%
19°C 6%
22°C 4.8%
新規
新規
2026/07/04
16°C or below
$162 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$162 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$85 Vol.
1%
19°C
$117 Vol.
6%
20°C
$640 Vol.
45%
21°C
$267 Vol.
48%
22°C
$144 Vol.
5%
23°C
$151 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$390 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$224 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$2,494終了日
2026/07/04マーケット開始日
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$2,494終了日
2026/07/04マーケット開始日
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETCurrent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate Tokyo overnight lows near 20–21 °C on July 4 under mostly cloudy to showery conditions, limiting radiative cooling and supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 19–22 °C. Seasonal guidance for above-normal summer temperatures is tempered by lingering early-July moisture and cloud cover that suppresses diurnal ranges, while urban heat-island effects and variable wind patterns introduce small uncertainties in the precise minimum. Traders weigh these model consensus elements against potential clearer breaks that could allow slightly lower readings near 19 °C or retained humidity keeping values at 22 °C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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