Kelly Morrison secured a decisive victory in Minnesota’s Third Congressional District on November 3, 2026, with unofficial results showing her at approximately 64 percent against Republican Tyler Bass at 36 percent, producing a margin near 28 points that aligns with the leading market outcome. Traders assigned overwhelming probability to the 25-30 percent band because the district’s established Democratic lean, Morrison’s incumbency, and consistent performance in prior cycles created a wide structural advantage that the Republican nominee could not overcome. Vote totals stabilized quickly after election night with nearly all precincts reporting, leaving little room for late shifts. Remaining uncertainty centers on final certification, any administrative adjustments to write-in or provisional ballots, and the remote possibility of legal challenges that could alter the exact margin by a few points.