The closely matched market-implied odds, with multiple outcomes near 50% and OpenAI leading named labs at 29.5%, underscore intense uncertainty in identifying the second-best AI agent developer by late October. OpenAI benefits from its established large language models and agent tooling, yet Google’s search infrastructure and Anthropic’s safety-focused releases keep the field competitive. Smaller players like Mistral, DeepSeek, and xAI gain traction through specialized capabilities or open approaches, while regulatory scrutiny and benchmark results remain key swing factors. Traders appear to await concrete product demos or capability milestones before consolidating positions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日OpenAI 30%
Google 16%
アンソロピック 15%
SpaceXAI 10.1%
新規
新規
2026/10/31
OpenAI
30%
16%
アンソロピック
15%
SpaceXAI
10%
ムーンショット
9%
アリババ
8%
DeepSeek
6%
Mistral
5%
ByteDance
5%
Amazon
4%
Baidu
4%
美団
4%
MiniMax
3%
Nvidia
3%
Xiaomi
2%
Z.ai
1%
Meta
1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
OpenAI 30%
Google 16%
アンソロピック 15%
SpaceXAI 10.1%
新規
新規
2026/10/31
OpenAI
$574 Vol.
30%
$673 Vol.
16%
アンソロピック
$334 Vol.
15%
SpaceXAI
$244 Vol.
10%
ムーンショット
$170 Vol.
9%
アリババ
$153 Vol.
8%
DeepSeek
$251 Vol.
6%
Mistral
$193 Vol.
5%
ByteDance
$215 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$242 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$168 Vol.
4%
美団
$183 Vol.
4%
MiniMax
$246 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$189 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$155 Vol.
2%
Z.ai
$192 Vol.
1%
Meta
$156 Vol.
1%
マイクロソフト
$155 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds, with multiple outcomes near 50% and OpenAI leading named labs at 29.5%, underscore intense uncertainty in identifying the second-best AI agent developer by late October. OpenAI benefits from its established large language models and agent tooling, yet Google’s search infrastructure and Anthropic’s safety-focused releases keep the field competitive. Smaller players like Mistral, DeepSeek, and xAI gain traction through specialized capabilities or open approaches, while regulatory scrutiny and benchmark results remain key swing factors. Traders appear to await concrete product demos or capability milestones before consolidating positions.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
音量
$4,494終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market-implied odds, with multiple outcomes near 50% and OpenAI leading named labs at 29.5%, underscore intense uncertainty in identifying the second-best AI agent developer by late October. OpenAI benefits from its established large language models and agent tooling, yet Google’s search infrastructure and Anthropic’s safety-focused releases keep the field competitive. Smaller players like Mistral, DeepSeek, and xAI gain traction through specialized capabilities or open approaches, while regulatory scrutiny and benchmark results remain key swing factors. Traders appear to await concrete product demos or capability milestones before consolidating positions.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$4,494終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds, with multiple outcomes near 50% and OpenAI leading named labs at 29.5%, underscore intense uncertainty in identifying the second-best AI agent developer by late October. OpenAI benefits from its established large language models and agent tooling, yet Google’s search infrastructure and Anthropic’s safety-focused releases keep the field competitive. Smaller players like Mistral, DeepSeek, and xAI gain traction through specialized capabilities or open approaches, while regulatory scrutiny and benchmark results remain key swing factors. Traders appear to await concrete product demos or capability milestones before consolidating positions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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