Recent model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by late November, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping several benchmarks, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash delivering strong value and speed. Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen and DeepSeek continue narrowing capability gaps at lower cost, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and xAI’s Grok updates add distribution and ecosystem angles. Trader consensus reflects this parity, safety collaborations among leading U.S. labs, and uncertainty over which firm sustains momentum through incremental improvements rather than a decisive breakthrough.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日OpenAI 33%
Xiaomi 32%
SpaceXAI 32%
ムーンショット 27%

OpenAI
33%

Xiaomi
32%

SpaceXAI
32%

ムーンショット
27%

Z.ai
24%

Anthropic
17%

ByteDance
17%

StepFun
17%

Thinky
15%

Meituan
15%

14%

DeepSeek
14%

MiniMax
14%

テンセント
14%

Baidu
13%

アリババ
13%

Microsoft
12%

Mistral
12%

Nvidia
11%

Meta
9%

アマゾン
8%
OpenAI 33%
Xiaomi 32%
SpaceXAI 32%
ムーンショット 27%

OpenAI
33%

Xiaomi
32%

SpaceXAI
32%

ムーンショット
27%

Z.ai
24%

Anthropic
17%

ByteDance
17%

StepFun
17%

Thinky
15%

Meituan
15%

14%

DeepSeek
14%

MiniMax
14%

テンセント
14%

Baidu
13%

アリババ
13%

Microsoft
12%

Mistral
12%

Nvidia
11%

Meta
9%

アマゾン
8%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
リゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases in early September 2026 have intensified competition for second-best AI lab status by late November, with Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 topping several benchmarks, OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra close behind on reasoning and agentic tasks, and Google’s Gemini 3.8 Flash delivering strong value and speed. Chinese labs such as Alibaba’s Qwen and DeepSeek continue narrowing capability gaps at lower cost, while Meta’s Muse Spark 1.3 and xAI’s Grok updates add distribution and ecosystem angles. Trader consensus reflects this parity, safety collaborations among leading U.S. labs, and uncertainty over which firm sustains momentum through incremental improvements rather than a decisive breakthrough.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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