President Aleksandar Vučić’s late June 2026 announcement that he would resign within weeks and trigger early presidential and parliamentary elections remains the dominant driver behind the high trader consensus on National Assembly dissolution by year-end. Ongoing mass protests since late 2024, triggered by the Novi Sad station collapse, have sustained pressure on the ruling Serbian Progressive Party and its coalition partners, prompting the earlier shift in government leadership from Miloš Vučević to Đuro Macut. Serbian constitutional rules require the president to dissolve parliament before calling snap elections, with the vote then held 45–60 days later. The next regular parliamentary contest is due by December 2027, but historical precedent shows Vučić frequently opts for early votes to reset the political calendar. Any formal dissolution decree before the market resolution date would confirm the outcome, while a decision to serve out the current term without calling elections would be the main scenario keeping the assembly intact.