SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and segment mix underpin the closely matched market-implied odds, with the $2.25 trillion-plus outcome at 30% reflecting trader bets on continued 92% year-over-year revenue growth from Q2 2026 results, Starlink's doubling to 12 million subscribers, and ramping AI compute contracts. The $1.75–2.00 trillion bracket at 26% captures the base case of sustained Starlink margins and Starship V3 deployment progress through October, tempered by elevated multiples near 93 times forward earnings, ongoing lock-up releases, and execution risks in the unprofitable space and AI segments. Recent Q2 beats and subscriber momentum have supported the current roughly $1.5–1.9 trillion range, while upcoming test flights and capacity milestones could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2.25兆ドル以上 30%
1.75兆〜2.00兆ドル 26%
1.50～1.75兆ドル 22%
2.00～2.25兆ドル 13%
新規
新規
2026/10/31
1兆ドル未満
6%
1.00兆～1.25兆ドル
5%
1兆2500億〜1兆5000億ドル
12%
1.50～1.75兆ドル
22%
1.75兆〜2.00兆ドル
26%
2.00～2.25兆ドル
13%
2.25兆ドル以上
30%
2.25兆ドル以上 30%
1.75兆〜2.00兆ドル 26%
1.50～1.75兆ドル 22%
2.00～2.25兆ドル 13%
新規
新規
2026/10/31
1兆ドル未満
$0 Vol.
6%
1.00兆～1.25兆ドル
$0 Vol.
5%
1兆2500億〜1兆5000億ドル
$21 Vol.
12%
1.50～1.75兆ドル
$0 Vol.
22%
1.75兆〜2.00兆ドル
$0 Vol.
26%
2.00～2.25兆ドル
$0 Vol.
13%
2.25兆ドル以上
$1,510 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and segment mix underpin the closely matched market-implied odds, with the $2.25 trillion-plus outcome at 30% reflecting trader bets on continued 92% year-over-year revenue growth from Q2 2026 results, Starlink's doubling to 12 million subscribers, and ramping AI compute contracts. The $1.75–2.00 trillion bracket at 26% captures the base case of sustained Starlink margins and Starship V3 deployment progress through October, tempered by elevated multiples near 93 times forward earnings, ongoing lock-up releases, and execution risks in the unprofitable space and AI segments. Recent Q2 beats and subscriber momentum have supported the current roughly $1.5–1.9 trillion range, while upcoming test flights and capacity milestones could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
マーケット開始日： Aug 24, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
音量
$1,531終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 24, 2026, 7:15 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and segment mix underpin the closely matched market-implied odds, with the $2.25 trillion-plus outcome at 30% reflecting trader bets on continued 92% year-over-year revenue growth from Q2 2026 results, Starlink's doubling to 12 million subscribers, and ramping AI compute contracts. The $1.75–2.00 trillion bracket at 26% captures the base case of sustained Starlink margins and Starship V3 deployment progress through October, tempered by elevated multiples near 93 times forward earnings, ongoing lock-up releases, and execution risks in the unprofitable space and AI segments. Recent Q2 beats and subscriber momentum have supported the current roughly $1.5–1.9 trillion range, while upcoming test flights and capacity milestones could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve according to Space Exploration Technologies' public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of the specified month.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of the specified month, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
音量
$1,531終了日
2026/10/31マーケット開始日
Aug 24, 2026, 7:15 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's post-IPO share price volatility and segment mix underpin the closely matched market-implied odds, with the $2.25 trillion-plus outcome at 30% reflecting trader bets on continued 92% year-over-year revenue growth from Q2 2026 results, Starlink's doubling to 12 million subscribers, and ramping AI compute contracts. The $1.75–2.00 trillion bracket at 26% captures the base case of sustained Starlink margins and Starship V3 deployment progress through October, tempered by elevated multiples near 93 times forward earnings, ongoing lock-up releases, and execution risks in the unprofitable space and AI segments. Recent Q2 beats and subscriber momentum have supported the current roughly $1.5–1.9 trillion range, while upcoming test flights and capacity milestones could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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