Recent releases of Claude Opus 5 from Anthropic and GPT-5.6 variants from OpenAI have solidified their positions atop the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard through demonstrated gains in complex reasoning benchmarks, yet the third-place slot remains fluid. Chinese labs including Alibaba, Moonshot (Kimi), and Z.ai have narrowed performance gaps via targeted math fine-tuning and efficient scaling, while Meta and Google advance through iterative Gemini and Llama updates. With probabilities clustered near 20% for leading contenders, trader sentiment highlights the impact of any October model drops or benchmark refinements before resolution, underscoring how incremental capability edges can rapidly reorder lab rankings in this specialized domain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アリババ 22%
Google 17%
OpenAI 13%
Z.ai 13%

アリババ
22%

17%

OpenAI
13%

Z.ai
13%

Baidu
11%

Meta
9%

Moonshot
8%

Anthropic
7%

メイトゥアン
6%

ミストラル
6%

マイクロソフト
6%

Nvidia
6%

MiniMax
6%

バイトダンス
6%

Amazon
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

シャオミ
1%

DeepSeek
1%

テンセント
1%

StepFun
1%
アリババ 22%
Google 17%
OpenAI 13%
Z.ai 13%

アリババ
22%

17%

OpenAI
13%

Z.ai
13%

Baidu
11%

Meta
9%

Moonshot
8%

Anthropic
7%

メイトゥアン
6%

ミストラル
6%

マイクロソフト
6%

Nvidia
6%

MiniMax
6%

バイトダンス
6%

Amazon
1%

SpaceXAI
1%

シャオミ
1%

DeepSeek
1%

テンセント
1%

StepFun
1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent releases of Claude Opus 5 from Anthropic and GPT-5.6 variants from OpenAI have solidified their positions atop the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard through demonstrated gains in complex reasoning benchmarks, yet the third-place slot remains fluid. Chinese labs including Alibaba, Moonshot (Kimi), and Z.ai have narrowed performance gaps via targeted math fine-tuning and efficient scaling, while Meta and Google advance through iterative Gemini and Llama updates. With probabilities clustered near 20% for leading contenders, trader sentiment highlights the impact of any October model drops or benchmark refinements before resolution, underscoring how incremental capability edges can rapidly reorder lab rankings in this specialized domain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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