**Traders assign a 74% probability to "No" on Tom Kean Jr. leaving office before his current term ends in January 2027, reflecting the absence of any confirmed plans, health setbacks, or procedural developments that would prompt an early vacancy.** Kean, the Republican incumbent in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, returned to Congress in late June 2026 after a roughly four-month absence for depression treatment and has since resumed full legislative and campaign activities ahead of the November 3 midterm. Recent reporting shows national GOP groups redirecting resources away from his competitive race against Democrat Rebecca Bennett due to polling deficits, but this concerns re-election prospects rather than any indication of resignation or removal from the current seat. No official statements, ethics inquiries, or medical updates have emerged suggesting an early departure, and Kean has confirmed his intent to complete the term while seeking another. With roughly three months remaining until the new Congress convenes, the market pricing aligns with the lack of catalysts that historically trigger early exits in similar situations.