Recent sharp declines in crude oil prices, with WTI settling near $88 per barrel and Brent dipping below $100, have driven the national average for regular gasoline down 12 cents to $4.10 per gallon as of November 5, 2026, according to AAA data. Seasonal demand softening, completion of refinery maintenance, and a shift to lower-cost winter-blend fuel have reinforced the downward trajectory, supporting the 97.6% market-implied odds for a November 6 reading below $4.0800. Trader consensus reflects this momentum backed by real capital. However, overnight geopolitical developments in the Middle East or unexpected supply disruptions could push prices higher and alter the outcome before resolution.