Incumbent Republican Michael Baumgartner and Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy remain closely matched in Washington’s 5th congressional district, with vote counting through early November 2026 showing Baumgartner ahead by roughly 3 points amid tens of thousands of remaining mail ballots. The district’s long Republican tilt has compressed from Baumgartner’s prior 21-point margin, driven by stronger Democratic performance in Spokane County urban precincts and national midterm dynamics that boosted challenger turnout. Rural counties continue to favor the incumbent, yet procedural factors including signature curing and late-count patterns sustain uncertainty over the final spread. Trader pricing on narrow Republican victory ranges reflects these ongoing ballot trends and the absence of a decisive call, with further updates from Spokane and surrounding counties likely to determine whether the margin settles inside or outside 5 points.