Recent soft July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has supported market-implied odds near 53.5% for a near-term federal funds rate cut, reflecting trader consensus on cooling price pressures after the Fed's July hold at 3.5-3.75%. Persistent above-target readings, combined with three dissenting votes favoring a hike at the last FOMC meeting, create a closely balanced view amid uncertainty over the policy path. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, where fresh labor market and inflation figures could shift rate expectations and resolve the current deadlock in trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日利上げ
47% 確率
新規
新規
2028/12/31
利上げ
47% 確率
新規
新規
2028/12/31
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent soft July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has supported market-implied odds near 53.5% for a near-term federal funds rate cut, reflecting trader consensus on cooling price pressures after the Fed's July hold at 3.5-3.75%. Persistent above-target readings, combined with three dissenting votes favoring a hike at the last FOMC meeting, create a closely balanced view amid uncertainty over the policy path. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, where fresh labor market and inflation figures could shift rate expectations and resolve the current deadlock in trader positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
マーケット開始日： Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
音量
$2,425終了日
2028/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent soft July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has supported market-implied odds near 53.5% for a near-term federal funds rate cut, reflecting trader consensus on cooling price pressures after the Fed's July hold at 3.5-3.75%. Persistent above-target readings, combined with three dissenting votes favoring a hike at the last FOMC meeting, create a closely balanced view amid uncertainty over the policy path. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, where fresh labor market and inflation figures could shift rate expectations and resolve the current deadlock in trader positioning.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
音量
$2,425終了日
2028/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent soft July CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has supported market-implied odds near 53.5% for a near-term federal funds rate cut, reflecting trader consensus on cooling price pressures after the Fed's July hold at 3.5-3.75%. Persistent above-target readings, combined with three dissenting votes favoring a hike at the last FOMC meeting, create a closely balanced view amid uncertainty over the policy path. Key upcoming catalysts include the August CPI release and the September FOMC meeting, where fresh labor market and inflation figures could shift rate expectations and resolve the current deadlock in trader positioning.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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