Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日11月1日までにリリースなし 40%
8月31日より前 25%
9月7日〜9月13日 24%
8月31日〜9月6日 23%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
8月31日より前
25%
8月31日〜9月6日
23%
9月7日〜9月13日
24%
9月14日～9月20日
23%
9月21日〜9月27日
23%
9月28日〜10月4日
23%
10月5日～10月11日
23%
10月12日～10月18日
22%
10月19日〜10月25日
22%
10月26日～11月1日
23%
11月1日までにリリースなし
55%
11月1日までにリリースなし 40%
8月31日より前 25%
9月7日〜9月13日 24%
8月31日〜9月6日 23%
新規
新規
2026/08/31
8月31日より前
$0 Vol.
25%
8月31日〜9月6日
$0 Vol.
23%
9月7日〜9月13日
$0 Vol.
24%
9月14日～9月20日
$0 Vol.
23%
9月21日〜9月27日
$0 Vol.
23%
9月28日〜10月4日
$0 Vol.
23%
10月5日～10月11日
$0 Vol.
23%
10月12日～10月18日
$0 Vol.
22%
10月19日〜10月25日
$0 Vol.
22%
10月26日～11月1日
$0 Vol.
23%
11月1日までにリリースなし
$47 Vol.
55%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
音量
$47終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$47終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the 54% implied probability on no Gemini 3.5 Pro release by November 1 as reflecting repeated delays to Google’s flagship model, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then pushed into July for additional partner testing and refinements. Lighter variants such as Gemini 3.6 Flash and 3.5 Flash-Lite shipped in July, but the Pro tier remains in internal or limited-partner use with no general availability or API endpoint confirmed as of mid-August. This pattern of slippage, combined with Google’s commencement of Gemini 4 training, has reinforced market sentiment that a frontier Pro launch before early fall is unlikely, while the clustered mid-20% odds on September and October windows capture the narrow possibility of a surprise late-summer rollout if testing accelerates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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