Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of leading in AI model rankings by end of October, reflecting its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership in areas such as reasoning and safety alignment. This consensus stems from demonstrated capabilities that have widened its edge over competitors amid ongoing model iteration cycles. Google at 8.6%, Meta at 4.5%, and OpenAI at 2.6% trail due to slower perceived progress on comparable updates, while other labs remain at negligible odds amid limited public capability demonstrations. Key near-term catalysts include any surprise announcements or third-party evaluations that could shift the current trader sentiment before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 86%
Google 8.7%
Meta 4.2%
OpenAI 2.4%
$23,291 Vol.
$23,291 Vol.
2026/10/31
Anthropic
86%
9%
Meta
4%
OpenAI
2%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
StepFun
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Google 8.7%
Meta 4.2%
OpenAI 2.4%
$23,291 Vol.
$23,291 Vol.
2026/10/31
Anthropic
$13,592 Vol.
86%
$723 Vol.
9%
Meta
$561 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$935 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$594 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$502 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$493 Vol.
1%
Baidu
$357 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$429 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$456 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$431 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$413 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$427 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$413 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$411 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$414 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$359 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$426 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$534 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$419 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$404 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of leading in AI model rankings by end of October, reflecting its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership in areas such as reasoning and safety alignment. This consensus stems from demonstrated capabilities that have widened its edge over competitors amid ongoing model iteration cycles. Google at 8.6%, Meta at 4.5%, and OpenAI at 2.6% trail due to slower perceived progress on comparable updates, while other labs remain at negligible odds amid limited public capability demonstrations. Key near-term catalysts include any surprise announcements or third-party evaluations that could shift the current trader sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
マーケット開始日： Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
音量
$23,291終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of leading in AI model rankings by end of October, reflecting its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership in areas such as reasoning and safety alignment. This consensus stems from demonstrated capabilities that have widened its edge over competitors amid ongoing model iteration cycles. Google at 8.6%, Meta at 4.5%, and OpenAI at 2.6% trail due to slower perceived progress on comparable updates, while other labs remain at negligible odds amid limited public capability demonstrations. Key near-term catalysts include any surprise announcements or third-party evaluations that could shift the current trader sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
音量
$23,291終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Anthropic an 85.5% implied probability of leading in AI model rankings by end of October, reflecting its recent large language model releases and benchmark leadership in areas such as reasoning and safety alignment. This consensus stems from demonstrated capabilities that have widened its edge over competitors amid ongoing model iteration cycles. Google at 8.6%, Meta at 4.5%, and OpenAI at 2.6% trail due to slower perceived progress on comparable updates, while other labs remain at negligible odds amid limited public capability demonstrations. Key near-term catalysts include any surprise announcements or third-party evaluations that could shift the current trader sentiment before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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