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icon for WI -07共和党予備選
政治·ウィスコンシン州予備選挙

WI -07共和党予備選

icon for WI -07共和党予備選
政治·ウィスコンシン州予備選挙

WI -07共和党予備選

Michael Alfonso 78%

Don Raihala 15%

Kevin Hermening 13%

Niina Baum 9%

Polymarket
新規

Michael Alfonso 78%

Don Raihala 15%

Kevin Hermening 13%

Niina Baum 9%

Polymarket
新規

Michael Alfonso

$25 Vol.

78%

Don Raihala

$19 Vol.

15%

Kevin Hermening

$0 Vol.

13%

Niina Baum

$23 Vol.

15%

Jessi Ebben

$0 Vol.

7%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Michael Alfonso leads the WI-07 Republican primary market at 75% implied probability ahead of the August 11 contest for the open seat vacated by Rep. Tom Tiffany. Trump’s January 2026 endorsement, combined with Alfonso’s ties to former district Rep. Sean Duffy and substantial early fundraising supported by affiliated PAC spending, has consolidated much of the party establishment and voter attention behind the 26-year-old media producer. The remaining field—Niina Baum, Kevin Hermening, Jessi Ebben, and Don Raihala—trails in the mid-teens or lower, reflecting limited name recognition and resources in a crowded primary. Recent polling and debate participation have not produced measurable shifts, leaving Alfonso’s advantages from high-profile backing and organizational support as the dominant factors in current trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$67
終了日
2026/08/11
マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Michael Alfonso leads the WI-07 Republican primary market at 75% implied probability ahead of the August 11 contest for the open seat vacated by Rep. Tom Tiffany. Trump’s January 2026 endorsement, combined with Alfonso’s ties to former district Rep. Sean Duffy and substantial early fundraising supported by affiliated PAC spending, has consolidated much of the party establishment and voter attention behind the 26-year-old media producer. The remaining field—Niina Baum, Kevin Hermening, Jessi Ebben, and Don Raihala—trails in the mid-teens or lower, reflecting limited name recognition and resources in a crowded primary. Recent polling and debate participation have not produced measurable shifts, leaving Alfonso’s advantages from high-profile backing and organizational support as the dominant factors in current trader consensus.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$67
終了日
2026/08/11
マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary is scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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はい

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「WI -07共和党予備選」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「Michael Alfonso」で78%、次いで「Don Raihala」が15%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、78¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に78%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「WI -07共和党予備選」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Jul 20, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「WI -07共和党予備選」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「WI -07共和党予備選」の現在のフロントランナーは「Michael Alfonso」で78%であり、市場がこの結果に78%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Don Raihala」で15%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「WI -07共和党予備選」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。