OpenAI's rapid iteration on the GPT-5 series, including the early-May 2026 launch of GPT-5.5 Instant as ChatGPT's new default model with sharper reasoning, reduced hallucinations, and stronger personalization, drives current trader sentiment around frontier-model timelines. These updates build on February and April releases like GPT-5.3 Codex and GPT-5.4, which introduced agentic coding, native tool use, and million-token context windows, positioning OpenAI ahead in competitive benchmarks against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1. Intense rivalry and user demand for practical AI capabilities encourage frequent shipping, while regulatory focus on safety evaluations and model transparency could introduce minor delays. Traders should monitor upcoming developer events and API enhancements for signals on the next capability jump.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$10,273 Vol.
2026/06/30
5月31日
17%
June 30
82%
September 30
93%
$10,273 Vol.
5月31日
$2,156 Vol.
17%
June 30
$2,497 Vol.
82%
September 30
$5,620 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's rapid iteration on the GPT-5 series, including the early-May 2026 launch of GPT-5.5 Instant as ChatGPT's new default model with sharper reasoning, reduced hallucinations, and stronger personalization, drives current trader sentiment around frontier-model timelines. These updates build on February and April releases like GPT-5.3 Codex and GPT-5.4, which introduced agentic coding, native tool use, and million-token context windows, positioning OpenAI ahead in competitive benchmarks against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1. Intense rivalry and user demand for practical AI capabilities encourage frequent shipping, while regulatory focus on safety evaluations and model transparency could introduce minor delays. Traders should monitor upcoming developer events and API enhancements for signals on the next capability jump.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
音量
$10,273終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI's rapid iteration on the GPT-5 series, including the early-May 2026 launch of GPT-5.5 Instant as ChatGPT's new default model with sharper reasoning, reduced hallucinations, and stronger personalization, drives current trader sentiment around frontier-model timelines. These updates build on February and April releases like GPT-5.3 Codex and GPT-5.4, which introduced agentic coding, native tool use, and million-token context windows, positioning OpenAI ahead in competitive benchmarks against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1. Intense rivalry and user demand for practical AI capabilities encourage frequent shipping, while regulatory focus on safety evaluations and model transparency could introduce minor delays. Traders should monitor upcoming developer events and API enhancements for signals on the next capability jump.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI makes a new frontier model available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to “Yes”, OpenAI’s new frontier model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
A frontier model refers to a newly released OpenAI model that OpenAI describes as one of its most capable or next-generation, general-purpose flagship models.
Qualifying new frontier models include successors to existing frontier models, such as GPT 5.2, which could succeed GPT 5.1 in the same way that GPT 5.1 succeeded GPT 5. Models focused on a specific task such as image generation or which are versions of a previous model optimized for a specific task (i.e. GPT 5.1-codex) or for cost-efficiency (i.e. GPT-5 mini) will not count.
Qualifying frontier models which are separate from the OpenAI GPT series will count. A qualifying new model from OpenAI’s o-series (i.e. o1, o3) will count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,273終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's rapid iteration on the GPT-5 series, including the early-May 2026 launch of GPT-5.5 Instant as ChatGPT's new default model with sharper reasoning, reduced hallucinations, and stronger personalization, drives current trader sentiment around frontier-model timelines. These updates build on February and April releases like GPT-5.3 Codex and GPT-5.4, which introduced agentic coding, native tool use, and million-token context windows, positioning OpenAI ahead in competitive benchmarks against Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Google's Gemini 3.1. Intense rivalry and user demand for practical AI capabilities encourage frequent shipping, while regulatory focus on safety evaluations and model transparency could introduce minor delays. Traders should monitor upcoming developer events and API enhancements for signals on the next capability jump.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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