Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 60.5% for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or prototypes five months into the year despite early rumors. Reports from April 2025 and January 2026 suggested early-stage development of an X-like platform with biometric verification via World ID or Face ID to combat bots, briefly lifting yes odds above 60%. However, OpenAI has prioritized enterprise expansions, including the recent Daybreak cybersecurity agent and a $4 billion deployment arm for organizational AI integration, sidelining consumer-facing social features. With no beta signals amid competitive pressures from Meta and xAI, traders see slim odds for a late-2026 launch unless catalyzed by developer conferences or strategic pivots.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$51,805 Vol.
$51,805 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$51,805 Vol.
$51,805 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 60.5% for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or prototypes five months into the year despite early rumors. Reports from April 2025 and January 2026 suggested early-stage development of an X-like platform with biometric verification via World ID or Face ID to combat bots, briefly lifting yes odds above 60%. However, OpenAI has prioritized enterprise expansions, including the recent Daybreak cybersecurity agent and a $4 billion deployment arm for organizational AI integration, sidelining consumer-facing social features. With no beta signals amid competitive pressures from Meta and xAI, traders see slim odds for a late-2026 launch unless catalyzed by developer conferences or strategic pivots.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
音量
$51,805終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 60.5% for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or prototypes five months into the year despite early rumors. Reports from April 2025 and January 2026 suggested early-stage development of an X-like platform with biometric verification via World ID or Face ID to combat bots, briefly lifting yes odds above 60%. However, OpenAI has prioritized enterprise expansions, including the recent Daybreak cybersecurity agent and a $4 billion deployment arm for organizational AI integration, sidelining consumer-facing social features. With no beta signals amid competitive pressures from Meta and xAI, traders see slim odds for a late-2026 launch unless catalyzed by developer conferences or strategic pivots.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$51,805終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No" at 60.5% for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, driven by the absence of official announcements or prototypes five months into the year despite early rumors. Reports from April 2025 and January 2026 suggested early-stage development of an X-like platform with biometric verification via World ID or Face ID to combat bots, briefly lifting yes odds above 60%. However, OpenAI has prioritized enterprise expansions, including the recent Daybreak cybersecurity agent and a $4 billion deployment arm for organizational AI integration, sidelining consumer-facing social features. With no beta signals amid competitive pressures from Meta and xAI, traders see slim odds for a late-2026 launch unless catalyzed by developer conferences or strategic pivots.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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