OpenAI's confidential SEC filing and internal deliberations have shifted trader consensus toward a 2027 listing, with advisers presenting a clear trade-off between an earlier debut at a sub-$1 trillion valuation or delaying to hit the target. CEO Sam Altman has rejected any valuation haircut as a non-starter, citing the company's recent private round near $850 billion and ongoing revenue growth from ChatGPT and enterprise large language model offerings. Market volatility after comparable AI-adjacent IPOs has reinforced caution, while the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings as of late June underscores the timeline slip. With roughly 16 months remaining before 2027 and no major regulatory or competitive catalysts forcing an earlier move, the 80.5% market-implied odds on "No" reflect realistic barriers to a qualifying $1 trillion-plus IPO in the interim.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
20% 確率
$296,131 Vol.
$296,131 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
20% 確率
$296,131 Vol.
$296,131 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI's confidential SEC filing and internal deliberations have shifted trader consensus toward a 2027 listing, with advisers presenting a clear trade-off between an earlier debut at a sub-$1 trillion valuation or delaying to hit the target. CEO Sam Altman has rejected any valuation haircut as a non-starter, citing the company's recent private round near $850 billion and ongoing revenue growth from ChatGPT and enterprise large language model offerings. Market volatility after comparable AI-adjacent IPOs has reinforced caution, while the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings as of late June underscores the timeline slip. With roughly 16 months remaining before 2027 and no major regulatory or competitive catalysts forcing an earlier move, the 80.5% market-implied odds on "No" reflect realistic barriers to a qualifying $1 trillion-plus IPO in the interim.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
音量
$296,131終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI's confidential SEC filing and internal deliberations have shifted trader consensus toward a 2027 listing, with advisers presenting a clear trade-off between an earlier debut at a sub-$1 trillion valuation or delaying to hit the target. CEO Sam Altman has rejected any valuation haircut as a non-starter, citing the company's recent private round near $850 billion and ongoing revenue growth from ChatGPT and enterprise large language model offerings. Market volatility after comparable AI-adjacent IPOs has reinforced caution, while the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings as of late June underscores the timeline slip. With roughly 16 months remaining before 2027 and no major regulatory or competitive catalysts forcing an earlier move, the 80.5% market-implied odds on "No" reflect realistic barriers to a qualifying $1 trillion-plus IPO in the interim.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
音量
$296,131終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI's confidential SEC filing and internal deliberations have shifted trader consensus toward a 2027 listing, with advisers presenting a clear trade-off between an earlier debut at a sub-$1 trillion valuation or delaying to hit the target. CEO Sam Altman has rejected any valuation haircut as a non-starter, citing the company's recent private round near $850 billion and ongoing revenue growth from ChatGPT and enterprise large language model offerings. Market volatility after comparable AI-adjacent IPOs has reinforced caution, while the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings as of late June underscores the timeline slip. With roughly 16 months remaining before 2027 and no major regulatory or competitive catalysts forcing an earlier move, the 80.5% market-implied odds on "No" reflect realistic barriers to a qualifying $1 trillion-plus IPO in the interim.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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