Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently lead Chatbot Arena with Elo scores near 1511 as of mid-August 2026, positioning the company ahead in the race to 1550 through incremental capability gains in reasoning and agentic tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants sit close behind at around 1509, while xAI and others trail slightly. However, trader consensus heavily favors no model reaching the threshold this year, reflecting the modest pace of frontier gains since early 2026 releases and typical release cycles that rarely deliver 40-point jumps without major breakthroughs. Upcoming model iterations or benchmark refinements before year-end remain key swing factors for any shift in these market-implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2026年に該当なし 79%
Anthropic 13%
Google 7.7%
OpenAI 3.6%
$112,835 Vol.
$112,835 Vol.
2026/12/31
2026年に該当なし
79%
Anthropic
13%
8%
OpenAI
4%
xAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
アリババ
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ミストラル
<1%
2026年に該当なし 79%
Anthropic 13%
Google 7.7%
OpenAI 3.6%
$112,835 Vol.
$112,835 Vol.
2026/12/31
2026年に該当なし
$24,905 Vol.
79%
Anthropic
$13,010 Vol.
13%
$10,793 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$13,006 Vol.
4%
xAI
$8,832 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$9,533 Vol.
1%
アリババ
$10,616 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$12,666 Vol.
1%
ミストラル
$9,474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently lead Chatbot Arena with Elo scores near 1511 as of mid-August 2026, positioning the company ahead in the race to 1550 through incremental capability gains in reasoning and agentic tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants sit close behind at around 1509, while xAI and others trail slightly. However, trader consensus heavily favors no model reaching the threshold this year, reflecting the modest pace of frontier gains since early 2026 releases and typical release cycles that rarely deliver 40-point jumps without major breakthroughs. Upcoming model iterations or benchmark refinements before year-end remain key swing factors for any shift in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
マーケット開始日： Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
音量
$112,835終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently lead Chatbot Arena with Elo scores near 1511 as of mid-August 2026, positioning the company ahead in the race to 1550 through incremental capability gains in reasoning and agentic tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants sit close behind at around 1509, while xAI and others trail slightly. However, trader consensus heavily favors no model reaching the threshold this year, reflecting the modest pace of frontier gains since early 2026 releases and typical release cycles that rarely deliver 40-point jumps without major breakthroughs. Upcoming model iterations or benchmark refinements before year-end remain key swing factors for any shift in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the listed entity, which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1550+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
音量
$112,835終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models currently lead Chatbot Arena with Elo scores near 1511 as of mid-August 2026, positioning the company ahead in the race to 1550 through incremental capability gains in reasoning and agentic tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 variants sit close behind at around 1509, while xAI and others trail slightly. However, trader consensus heavily favors no model reaching the threshold this year, reflecting the modest pace of frontier gains since early 2026 releases and typical release cycles that rarely deliver 40-point jumps without major breakthroughs. Upcoming model iterations or benchmark refinements before year-end remain key swing factors for any shift in these market-implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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