Traders assign Anthropic a 74% implied probability of fielding the second-best large language model by end of June primarily due to the consistent strength of its Claude 4.6 Opus and Sonnet releases, which lead or tie leading benchmarks in coding, long-context agentic tasks, and natural prose generation. OpenAI’s April 23 launch of GPT-5.5 has solidified its position at the frontier, leaving Anthropic’s 1-million-token context window and SWE-bench performance as the clearest differentiator over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which excels in multimodal reasoning but trails in developer workflows. Recent enterprise adoption signals and iterative capability gains since February have reinforced this consensus among risk-capital traders, though any unexpected Gemini update or OpenAI follow-on release before June 30 could still shift the narrow gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Anthropic 75%
Google 19%
OpenAI 7.6%
xAI 2.6%
$400,291 Vol.
$400,291 Vol.
2026/06/30
Anthropic
75%
19%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
マイクロソフト
1%
アリババ
1%
Meta
1%
ムーンショット
<1%
百度
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
美団
<1%
ミストラル
<1%
バイトダンス
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
Anthropic 75%
Google 19%
OpenAI 7.6%
xAI 2.6%
$400,291 Vol.
$400,291 Vol.
2026/06/30
Anthropic
$14,660 Vol.
75%
$5,606 Vol.
19%
OpenAI
$34,197 Vol.
8%
xAI
$14,881 Vol.
3%
DeepSeek
$248,799 Vol.
1%
マイクロソフト
$5,532 Vol.
1%
アリババ
$6,585 Vol.
1%
Meta
$4,175 Vol.
1%
ムーンショット
$4,912 Vol.
<1%
百度
$4,388 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$9,312 Vol.
<1%
美団
$34,076 Vol.
<1%
ミストラル
$5,546 Vol.
<1%
バイトダンス
$4,723 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$2,898 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic a 74% implied probability of fielding the second-best large language model by end of June primarily due to the consistent strength of its Claude 4.6 Opus and Sonnet releases, which lead or tie leading benchmarks in coding, long-context agentic tasks, and natural prose generation. OpenAI’s April 23 launch of GPT-5.5 has solidified its position at the frontier, leaving Anthropic’s 1-million-token context window and SWE-bench performance as the clearest differentiator over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which excels in multimodal reasoning but trails in developer workflows. Recent enterprise adoption signals and iterative capability gains since February have reinforced this consensus among risk-capital traders, though any unexpected Gemini update or OpenAI follow-on release before June 30 could still shift the narrow gap.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
音量
$400,291終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic a 74% implied probability of fielding the second-best large language model by end of June primarily due to the consistent strength of its Claude 4.6 Opus and Sonnet releases, which lead or tie leading benchmarks in coding, long-context agentic tasks, and natural prose generation. OpenAI’s April 23 launch of GPT-5.5 has solidified its position at the frontier, leaving Anthropic’s 1-million-token context window and SWE-bench performance as the clearest differentiator over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which excels in multimodal reasoning but trails in developer workflows. Recent enterprise adoption signals and iterative capability gains since February have reinforced this consensus among risk-capital traders, though any unexpected Gemini update or OpenAI follow-on release before June 30 could still shift the narrow gap.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$400,291終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign Anthropic a 74% implied probability of fielding the second-best large language model by end of June primarily due to the consistent strength of its Claude 4.6 Opus and Sonnet releases, which lead or tie leading benchmarks in coding, long-context agentic tasks, and natural prose generation. OpenAI’s April 23 launch of GPT-5.5 has solidified its position at the frontier, leaving Anthropic’s 1-million-token context window and SWE-bench performance as the clearest differentiator over Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro, which excels in multimodal reasoning but trails in developer workflows. Recent enterprise adoption signals and iterative capability gains since February have reinforced this consensus among risk-capital traders, though any unexpected Gemini update or OpenAI follow-on release before June 30 could still shift the narrow gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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