Apple's consistent annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 92.5% implied probability of an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained a September hardware refresh cycle since the original iPhone, supported by a mature supply chain and ongoing semiconductor advancements that allow incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays without major disruptions. No official statements or credible industry reports have signaled a shift in this rhythm, even amid broader AI integration efforts in iOS. While the high conviction reflects this established pattern, realistic challenges include potential delays from global component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new features, or a strategic pivot to extended refresh cycles that could push the timeline into 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$102,570 Vol.
$102,570 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$102,570 Vol.
$102,570 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 92.5% implied probability of an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained a September hardware refresh cycle since the original iPhone, supported by a mature supply chain and ongoing semiconductor advancements that allow incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays without major disruptions. No official statements or credible industry reports have signaled a shift in this rhythm, even amid broader AI integration efforts in iOS. While the high conviction reflects this established pattern, realistic challenges include potential delays from global component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new features, or a strategic pivot to extended refresh cycles that could push the timeline into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$102,570終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's consistent annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 92.5% implied probability of an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained a September hardware refresh cycle since the original iPhone, supported by a mature supply chain and ongoing semiconductor advancements that allow incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays without major disruptions. No official statements or credible industry reports have signaled a shift in this rhythm, even amid broader AI integration efforts in iOS. While the high conviction reflects this established pattern, realistic challenges include potential delays from global component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new features, or a strategic pivot to extended refresh cycles that could push the timeline into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$102,613終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's consistent annual release cadence for its flagship iPhone lineup continues to anchor trader sentiment around the 92.5% implied probability of an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. The company has maintained a September hardware refresh cycle since the original iPhone, supported by a mature supply chain and ongoing semiconductor advancements that allow incremental improvements in processors, cameras, and displays without major disruptions. No official statements or credible industry reports have signaled a shift in this rhythm, even amid broader AI integration efforts in iOS. While the high conviction reflects this established pattern, realistic challenges include potential delays from global component shortages, regulatory hurdles on new features, or a strategic pivot to extended refresh cycles that could push the timeline into 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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