Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, with iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models confirmed by suppliers and analysts for a September 2026 keynote and retail rollout alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 98.2% implied probability for a 2026 release. Recent supply-chain reports and earnings commentary from partners like Pegatron reinforce that premium variants will follow the traditional fall cadence, even as the base iPhone 18 shifts to early 2027 to accommodate the new split strategy. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple's 15-plus-year history of September events, strong fourth-quarter revenue alignment, and ongoing component production. While a major disruption such as severe manufacturing delays, regulatory hurdles, or an unforeseen leadership transition could theoretically push everything back, the risk appears minimal at this stage with pre-launch timelines already advanced.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
98% 確率
$172,877 Vol.
$172,877 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
98% 確率
$172,877 Vol.
$172,877 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, with iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models confirmed by suppliers and analysts for a September 2026 keynote and retail rollout alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 98.2% implied probability for a 2026 release. Recent supply-chain reports and earnings commentary from partners like Pegatron reinforce that premium variants will follow the traditional fall cadence, even as the base iPhone 18 shifts to early 2027 to accommodate the new split strategy. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple's 15-plus-year history of September events, strong fourth-quarter revenue alignment, and ongoing component production. While a major disruption such as severe manufacturing delays, regulatory hurdles, or an unforeseen leadership transition could theoretically push everything back, the risk appears minimal at this stage with pre-launch timelines already advanced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$172,877終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, with iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models confirmed by suppliers and analysts for a September 2026 keynote and retail rollout alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 98.2% implied probability for a 2026 release. Recent supply-chain reports and earnings commentary from partners like Pegatron reinforce that premium variants will follow the traditional fall cadence, even as the base iPhone 18 shifts to early 2027 to accommodate the new split strategy. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple's 15-plus-year history of September events, strong fourth-quarter revenue alignment, and ongoing component production. While a major disruption such as severe manufacturing delays, regulatory hurdles, or an unforeseen leadership transition could theoretically push everything back, the risk appears minimal at this stage with pre-launch timelines already advanced.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$172,877終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established pattern of annual flagship smartphone launches, with iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models confirmed by suppliers and analysts for a September 2026 keynote and retail rollout alongside the first foldable iPhone, drives the 98.2% implied probability for a 2026 release. Recent supply-chain reports and earnings commentary from partners like Pegatron reinforce that premium variants will follow the traditional fall cadence, even as the base iPhone 18 shifts to early 2027 to accommodate the new split strategy. Traders view this as near-certain given Apple's 15-plus-year history of September events, strong fourth-quarter revenue alignment, and ongoing component production. While a major disruption such as severe manufacturing delays, regulatory hurdles, or an unforeseen leadership transition could theoretically push everything back, the risk appears minimal at this stage with pre-launch timelines already advanced.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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