Apple's longstanding annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September, underpins the 95.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and Bloomberg confirmations indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model will launch that fall, even as Apple shifts to a split schedule that delays the base iPhone 18 to early 2027. Traders weigh this established hardware pipeline, ongoing A-series chip development, and consistent production timelines more heavily than the strategy change. While delays from manufacturing issues, regulatory hurdles on new form factors, or unexpected supply disruptions remain possible, they would need to derail the entire premium lineup to shift the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$131,467 Vol.
$131,467 Vol.
2026/12/31
$131,467 Vol.
$131,467 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September, underpins the 95.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and Bloomberg confirmations indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model will launch that fall, even as Apple shifts to a split schedule that delays the base iPhone 18 to early 2027. Traders weigh this established hardware pipeline, ongoing A-series chip development, and consistent production timelines more heavily than the strategy change. While delays from manufacturing issues, regulatory hurdles on new form factors, or unexpected supply disruptions remain possible, they would need to derail the entire premium lineup to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
音量
$131,467終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September, underpins the 95.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and Bloomberg confirmations indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model will launch that fall, even as Apple shifts to a split schedule that delays the base iPhone 18 to early 2027. Traders weigh this established hardware pipeline, ongoing A-series chip development, and consistent production timelines more heavily than the strategy change. While delays from manufacturing issues, regulatory hurdles on new form factors, or unexpected supply disruptions remain possible, they would need to derail the entire premium lineup to shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$131,467終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's longstanding annual iPhone release cadence, with new models typically announced in September, underpins the 95.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supply-chain reports and Bloomberg confirmations indicate the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and first foldable model will launch that fall, even as Apple shifts to a split schedule that delays the base iPhone 18 to early 2027. Traders weigh this established hardware pipeline, ongoing A-series chip development, and consistent production timelines more heavily than the strategy change. While delays from manufacturing issues, regulatory hurdles on new form factors, or unexpected supply disruptions remain possible, they would need to derail the entire premium lineup to shift the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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