Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven primarily by its recent Claude 4 release that set new records on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks while maintaining strong safety alignments. Traders see this as extending the company’s consistent edge over competitors in large language model performance and developer adoption. Google’s 7.5% share reflects ongoing Gemini updates but lacks the same benchmark dominance or recent capability leaps. OpenAI’s slim 0.8% chance acknowledges GPT-5 progress yet highlights delays in matching Anthropic’s current trajectory. A last-minute breakthrough from Google DeepMind or OpenAI before month-end could shift sentiment, though the market views such reversals as unlikely given the short timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アンソロピック 93%
グーグル 8%
OpenAI <1%
バイトダンス <1%
$8,745,304 Vol.
$8,745,304 Vol.
2026/05/31
アンソロピック
93%
グーグル
8%
OpenAI
1%
バイトダンス
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
アリババ
<1%
ムーンショット
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
バイドゥ
<1%
アマゾン
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美団
<1%
マイクロソフト
<1%
アンソロピック 93%
グーグル 8%
OpenAI <1%
バイトダンス <1%
$8,745,304 Vol.
$8,745,304 Vol.
2026/05/31
アンソロピック
$636,748 Vol.
93%
グーグル
$577,774 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$727,721 Vol.
1%
バイトダンス
$543,182 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$513,773 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$515,318 Vol.
<1%
xAI
$658,800 Vol.
<1%
アリババ
$518,378 Vol.
<1%
ムーンショット
$557,139 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$475,917 Vol.
<1%
バイドゥ
$470,637 Vol.
<1%
アマゾン
$403,756 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,421,640 Vol.
<1%
美団
$311,909 Vol.
<1%
マイクロソフト
$412,851 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven primarily by its recent Claude 4 release that set new records on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks while maintaining strong safety alignments. Traders see this as extending the company’s consistent edge over competitors in large language model performance and developer adoption. Google’s 7.5% share reflects ongoing Gemini updates but lacks the same benchmark dominance or recent capability leaps. OpenAI’s slim 0.8% chance acknowledges GPT-5 progress yet highlights delays in matching Anthropic’s current trajectory. A last-minute breakthrough from Google DeepMind or OpenAI before month-end could shift sentiment, though the market views such reversals as unlikely given the short timeline.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
音量
$8,745,304終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven primarily by its recent Claude 4 release that set new records on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks while maintaining strong safety alignments. Traders see this as extending the company’s consistent edge over competitors in large language model performance and developer adoption. Google’s 7.5% share reflects ongoing Gemini updates but lacks the same benchmark dominance or recent capability leaps. OpenAI’s slim 0.8% chance acknowledges GPT-5 progress yet highlights delays in matching Anthropic’s current trajectory. A last-minute breakthrough from Google DeepMind or OpenAI before month-end could shift sentiment, though the market views such reversals as unlikely given the short timeline.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
音量
$8,745,304終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven primarily by its recent Claude 4 release that set new records on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks while maintaining strong safety alignments. Traders see this as extending the company’s consistent edge over competitors in large language model performance and developer adoption. Google’s 7.5% share reflects ongoing Gemini updates but lacks the same benchmark dominance or recent capability leaps. OpenAI’s slim 0.8% chance acknowledges GPT-5 progress yet highlights delays in matching Anthropic’s current trajectory. A last-minute breakthrough from Google DeepMind or OpenAI before month-end could shift sentiment, though the market views such reversals as unlikely given the short timeline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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