SpaceX’s dominant 93.5% implied probability for a closing market cap above 1 trillion reflects the company’s confidential SEC filing in April and reported plans for a June 2026 listing targeting 1.5–2 trillion, fueled by Starlink’s rapid subscriber growth to millions worldwide and its control of over 80% of the commercial launch market. Analysts cite expanding revenue from satellite broadband services, reusable rocket operations, and potential synergies with related AI initiatives as key drivers of this premium valuation. Traders see limited near-term downside risk given the momentum, though realistic challenges include regulatory scrutiny on the filing timeline, broader market volatility affecting large IPOs, or slower-than-expected Starlink adoption in key regions that could compress final pricing below the trillion threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日1兆ドル超 94%
2028年より前のIPOなし 1.4%
8000億~9000億 1.3%
7000億~8000億 1.0%
$3,412,653 Vol.
$3,412,653 Vol.
5,000億ドル未満
<1%
5,000億〜6,000億
<1%
6000億~7000億
<1%
7000億~8000億
1%
8000億~9000億
1%
9,000億〜1兆
1%
1兆ドル超
94%
2028年より前のIPOなし
1%
1兆ドル超 94%
2028年より前のIPOなし 1.4%
8000億~9000億 1.3%
7000億~8000億 1.0%
$3,412,653 Vol.
$3,412,653 Vol.
5,000億ドル未満
<1%
5,000億〜6,000億
<1%
6000億~7000億
<1%
7000億~8000億
1%
8000億~9000億
1%
9,000億〜1兆
1%
1兆ドル超
94%
2028年より前のIPOなし
1%
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日: Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s dominant 93.5% implied probability for a closing market cap above 1 trillion reflects the company’s confidential SEC filing in April and reported plans for a June 2026 listing targeting 1.5–2 trillion, fueled by Starlink’s rapid subscriber growth to millions worldwide and its control of over 80% of the commercial launch market. Analysts cite expanding revenue from satellite broadband services, reusable rocket operations, and potential synergies with related AI initiatives as key drivers of this premium valuation. Traders see limited near-term downside risk given the momentum, though realistic challenges include regulatory scrutiny on the filing timeline, broader market volatility affecting large IPOs, or slower-than-expected Starlink adoption in key regions that could compress final pricing below the trillion threshold.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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