Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, maintains a highly concentrated portfolio centered on AI infrastructure bottlenecks, including power generation, semiconductors, and related compute assets. Its latest 13F for Q4 2025 reported $5.52 billion in equity exposure across 29 holdings, with top positions such as Bloom Energy comprising roughly 16 percent and heavy call options on names like CoreWeave and Intel, reflecting a 33 percent quarter-over-quarter increase driven by both performance and inflows. Traders monitor the upcoming Q1 2026 filing, due mid-May, for any new positions that could signal an expansion of this thesis amid ongoing AI capital-expenditure cycles and volatility in related sectors. Market-implied odds reflect the fund’s track record of rapid position sizing rather than broad diversification, underscoring how fresh holdings would influence sentiment on specific infrastructure plays.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$112 Vol.
2026/05/15
Constellation Energy
12%
Eaton
8%
GE Vernova
12%
MARA Holdings
9%
Micron
50%
Oklo
7%
Qualcomm
50%
TeraWulf
7%
Vertiv
28%
Vistra Energy
12%
$112 Vol.
Constellation Energy
$0 Vol.
12%
Eaton
$0 Vol.
8%
GE Vernova
$0 Vol.
12%
MARA Holdings
$0 Vol.
9%
Micron
$50 Vol.
50%
Oklo
$0 Vol.
7%
Qualcomm
$54 Vol.
50%
TeraWulf
$0 Vol.
7%
Vertiv
$8 Vol.
28%
Vistra Energy
$0 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, maintains a highly concentrated portfolio centered on AI infrastructure bottlenecks, including power generation, semiconductors, and related compute assets. Its latest 13F for Q4 2025 reported $5.52 billion in equity exposure across 29 holdings, with top positions such as Bloom Energy comprising roughly 16 percent and heavy call options on names like CoreWeave and Intel, reflecting a 33 percent quarter-over-quarter increase driven by both performance and inflows. Traders monitor the upcoming Q1 2026 filing, due mid-May, for any new positions that could signal an expansion of this thesis amid ongoing AI capital-expenditure cycles and volatility in related sectors. Market-implied odds reflect the fund’s track record of rapid position sizing rather than broad diversification, underscoring how fresh holdings would influence sentiment on specific infrastructure plays.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
マーケット開始日： May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
音量
$112終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, maintains a highly concentrated portfolio centered on AI infrastructure bottlenecks, including power generation, semiconductors, and related compute assets. Its latest 13F for Q4 2025 reported $5.52 billion in equity exposure across 29 holdings, with top positions such as Bloom Energy comprising roughly 16 percent and heavy call options on names like CoreWeave and Intel, reflecting a 33 percent quarter-over-quarter increase driven by both performance and inflows. Traders monitor the upcoming Q1 2026 filing, due mid-May, for any new positions that could signal an expansion of this thesis amid ongoing AI capital-expenditure cycles and volatility in related sectors. Market-implied odds reflect the fund’s track record of rapid position sizing rather than broad diversification, underscoring how fresh holdings would influence sentiment on specific infrastructure plays.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness LP's next filed 13F-HR filing with the SEC reporting holdings as of March 31, 2026 includes a long position in the specified stock that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
A "new position" refers to a position appearing in the relevant 13F-HR filing that did not appear in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing submitted by Situational Awareness LP. A position that was not disclosed in the immediately preceding 13F-HR filing for any reason, including confidential treatment, will be considered a new position if it appears in the relevant 13F-HR filing.
Long common stock holdings and long call option positions in the specified stock reported in the relevant 13F-HR filing will qualify. Short positions, put option positions, and other bearish positions will not qualify.
The relevant filing for this market is the 13F-HR filing reflecting holdings as of March 31, 2026. Amendments (13F-HR/A) filed after the initial 13F-HR submission will not be considered.
The standard SEC filing deadline for this report is May 15, 2026.
If Situational Awareness LP does not file the relevant 13F-HR with the SEC by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Situational Awareness LP's SEC EDGAR filing page (https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=2045724).
音量
$112終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
May 13, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Situational Awareness LP, the San Francisco-based hedge fund led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, maintains a highly concentrated portfolio centered on AI infrastructure bottlenecks, including power generation, semiconductors, and related compute assets. Its latest 13F for Q4 2025 reported $5.52 billion in equity exposure across 29 holdings, with top positions such as Bloom Energy comprising roughly 16 percent and heavy call options on names like CoreWeave and Intel, reflecting a 33 percent quarter-over-quarter increase driven by both performance and inflows. Traders monitor the upcoming Q1 2026 filing, due mid-May, for any new positions that could signal an expansion of this thesis amid ongoing AI capital-expenditure cycles and volatility in related sectors. Market-implied odds reflect the fund’s track record of rapid position sizing rather than broad diversification, underscoring how fresh holdings would influence sentiment on specific infrastructure plays.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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