Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations for a broader peace agreement, including a potential nuclear deal and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, remain the central driver of trader sentiment on whether President Trump will restart Project Freedom—a military escort operation for commercial shipping—by late May 2026. Launched briefly in early May following earlier U.S. strikes on Iranian naval assets, the initiative was paused within days at the request of multiple countries to allow talks to advance, with Saudi Arabia declining use of its airspace and bases to avoid escalation risks. No formal restart announcements have occurred since the pause, and White House statements continue to emphasize diplomatic progress alongside a maintained blockade. Traders weigh these factors against the possibility of stalled talks or renewed Iranian interference prompting renewed escorts, though recent reporting shows limited movement toward final agreement.