Former U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl leads Polymarket trader consensus at 67.5% to win Alabama's 1st Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, reflecting his polling edge—such as 25%-9% over State Rep. Rhett Marques in a recent survey—and fundraising advantage in Q1 reports, bolstered by name recognition from prior incumbency despite a crowded field splitting opposition votes. A Supreme Court ruling three days ago vacated a lower court block on Alabama's 2023 congressional map, clouding the race with potential nullification of primary results and a special election under revised boundaries, where Carl remains anchored in District 1 while some challengers like Joshua McKee shift districts. Marques holds 11% on cash reserves and occasional poll surges, with Austin Sidwell and others trailing amid undecided voters and forums highlighting GOP bona fides.