The fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act set the next federal election for October 15, 2029, following the April 28, 2025, vote that produced the current Parliament. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has shown no signs of instability, with routine House proceedings continuing through mid-June 2026 and no recent confidence votes, supply defeats, or strategic polling shifts that would prompt dissolution. Calling another election requires the prime minister to advise the governor general to dissolve Parliament—an action historically taken only after years in office or acute political pressure, not within 14 months of the prior contest. Traders assign a 99.8 percent probability to “No” because the 16-day window to June 30 offers no plausible catalyst for such a move. The only realistic paths to resolution in the affirmative remain an unexpected loss of confidence in the House or an unforeseen internal party decision, both of which lack supporting developments at present.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$83,674 거래량
$83,674 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$83,674 거래량
$83,674 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act set the next federal election for October 15, 2029, following the April 28, 2025, vote that produced the current Parliament. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has shown no signs of instability, with routine House proceedings continuing through mid-June 2026 and no recent confidence votes, supply defeats, or strategic polling shifts that would prompt dissolution. Calling another election requires the prime minister to advise the governor general to dissolve Parliament—an action historically taken only after years in office or acute political pressure, not within 14 months of the prior contest. Traders assign a 99.8 percent probability to “No” because the 16-day window to June 30 offers no plausible catalyst for such a move. The only realistic paths to resolution in the affirmative remain an unexpected loss of confidence in the House or an unforeseen internal party decision, both of which lack supporting developments at present.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ET
거래량
$83,674종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act set the next federal election for October 15, 2029, following the April 28, 2025, vote that produced the current Parliament. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has shown no signs of instability, with routine House proceedings continuing through mid-June 2026 and no recent confidence votes, supply defeats, or strategic polling shifts that would prompt dissolution. Calling another election requires the prime minister to advise the governor general to dissolve Parliament—an action historically taken only after years in office or acute political pressure, not within 14 months of the prior contest. Traders assign a 99.8 percent probability to “No” because the 16-day window to June 30 offers no plausible catalyst for such a move. The only realistic paths to resolution in the affirmative remain an unexpected loss of confidence in the House or an unforeseen internal party decision, both of which lack supporting developments at present.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for November 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$83,674종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Nov 24, 2025, 3:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act set the next federal election for October 15, 2029, following the April 28, 2025, vote that produced the current Parliament. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government has shown no signs of instability, with routine House proceedings continuing through mid-June 2026 and no recent confidence votes, supply defeats, or strategic polling shifts that would prompt dissolution. Calling another election requires the prime minister to advise the governor general to dissolve Parliament—an action historically taken only after years in office or acute political pressure, not within 14 months of the prior contest. Traders assign a 99.8 percent probability to “No” because the 16-day window to June 30 offers no plausible catalyst for such a move. The only realistic paths to resolution in the affirmative remain an unexpected loss of confidence in the House or an unforeseen internal party decision, both of which lack supporting developments at present.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
외부 링크에 주의하세요.
자주 묻는 질문