Doug Ford’s public confirmation at the Progressive Conservative convention in late January 2026 that he intends to lead the party into a fourth mandate has anchored trader expectations that he will remain leader through year-end. With no leadership review scheduled, no prominent caucus dissent, and the next provincial election still years away, the absence of any credible challenge or resignation signal has kept implied probabilities for an exit by December 31 below 15 percent. Recent polling softness tied to the government-jet controversy has not translated into organized internal pressure, reinforcing the view that Ford retains firm control of the PC apparatus and faces no structural timeline forcing a transition before the close of the calendar year.