Trader consensus reflects an 85% implied probability that former Rep. Eric Swalwell will not face criminal charges by May 31, driven by the absence of any indictment despite a DOJ investigation launched in mid-April into multiple sexual misconduct allegations from over a dozen women, including claims of assault corroborated by some contemporaneous communications. Swalwell resigned from Congress on April 14 amid the scrutiny, which also derailed his California gubernatorial bid, but federal probes typically require extensive evidence gathering and grand jury review, with no updates indicating imminent action. Manhattan DA is separately examining related claims, yet procedural timelines and lack of arrests make a pre-deadline charging decision unlikely per market wisdom. Late developments like new accuser statements could shift odds.