The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July 2026, triggered by Andy Burnham’s resignation after winning the Makerfield parliamentary seat, features a compressed timeline that keeps probabilities clustered among leading Labour figures and several opposition contenders. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty over Labour’s selection process, with Bev Craig positioned as the frontrunner alongside names such as Arooj Shah and others in the party’s local base, while Paul Dennett serves only as interim acting mayor. Recent developments, including the by-election date confirmation and candidate speculation, have prevented any single outcome from pulling ahead decisively. Factors such as voter turnout patterns, supplementary vote mechanics, and the performance of Reform UK, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green, and independent candidates could still shift implied probabilities before nominations close and ballots are cast.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev Craig 90%
Sian Astley 6%
Geraldine Coggins <1%
Kate Green <1%
$171,958 거래량
$171,958 거래량
Bev Craig
90%
Sian Astley
6%
Geraldine Coggins
1%
Kate Green
1%
Marlon Scott West
<1%
Paul Dennett
<1%
Dan Barker
<1%
Laura Evans
<1%
Richard Kilpatrick
<1%
Hannah Spencer
<1%
Jake Austin
<1%
Nick Buckley
<1%
Arooj Shah
<1%
George Galloway
<1%
Bev Craig 90%
Sian Astley 6%
Geraldine Coggins <1%
Kate Green <1%
$171,958 거래량
$171,958 거래량
Bev Craig
90%
Sian Astley
6%
Geraldine Coggins
1%
Kate Green
1%
Marlon Scott West
<1%
Paul Dennett
<1%
Dan Barker
<1%
Laura Evans
<1%
Richard Kilpatrick
<1%
Hannah Spencer
<1%
Jake Austin
<1%
Nick Buckley
<1%
Arooj Shah
<1%
George Galloway
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
마켓 개설일: Jun 19, 2026, 11:58 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Greater Manchester as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Greater Manchester mayoral by-election on 30 July 2026, triggered by Andy Burnham’s resignation after winning the Makerfield parliamentary seat, features a compressed timeline that keeps probabilities clustered among leading Labour figures and several opposition contenders. Trader pricing reflects uncertainty over Labour’s selection process, with Bev Craig positioned as the frontrunner alongside names such as Arooj Shah and others in the party’s local base, while Paul Dennett serves only as interim acting mayor. Recent developments, including the by-election date confirmation and candidate speculation, have prevented any single outcome from pulling ahead decisively. Factors such as voter turnout patterns, supplementary vote mechanics, and the performance of Reform UK, Conservative, Liberal Democrat, Green, and independent candidates could still shift implied probabilities before nominations close and ballots are cast.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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