Incumbent Mitch McConnell's 2025 retirement opened Kentucky's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 92% due to the state's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won here since 1992—and forecasters' Safe Republican ratings amid strong fundraising and endorsements for GOP frontrunner Rep. Andy Barr, who surged to 43-46% in May polls after President Trump's endorsement and Nate Morris's May 1 withdrawal with Barr backing. Democrats' Charles Booker leads their primary at 36%, but hypothetical matchups show Republicans ahead by double digits. Primaries on May 19 could clarify nominees for the November 3 general; rare shifts might arise from nominee scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
96%
Democrat
<1%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Republican
$3,812 거래량
96%
Democrat
$4,310 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Mitch McConnell's 2025 retirement opened Kentucky's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 92% due to the state's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won here since 1992—and forecasters' Safe Republican ratings amid strong fundraising and endorsements for GOP frontrunner Rep. Andy Barr, who surged to 43-46% in May polls after President Trump's endorsement and Nate Morris's May 1 withdrawal with Barr backing. Democrats' Charles Booker leads their primary at 36%, but hypothetical matchups show Republicans ahead by double digits. Primaries on May 19 could clarify nominees for the November 3 general; rare shifts might arise from nominee scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
마켓 개설일: Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
거래량
$8,123종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Mitch McConnell's 2025 retirement opened Kentucky's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 92% due to the state's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won here since 1992—and forecasters' Safe Republican ratings amid strong fundraising and endorsements for GOP frontrunner Rep. Andy Barr, who surged to 43-46% in May polls after President Trump's endorsement and Nate Morris's May 1 withdrawal with Barr backing. Democrats' Charles Booker leads their primary at 36%, but hypothetical matchups show Republicans ahead by double digits. Primaries on May 19 could clarify nominees for the November 3 general; rare shifts might arise from nominee scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
거래량
$8,123종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Mitch McConnell's 2025 retirement opened Kentucky's Senate seat, yet trader consensus prices a Republican victory at 92% due to the state's entrenched GOP dominance—no Democrat has won here since 1992—and forecasters' Safe Republican ratings amid strong fundraising and endorsements for GOP frontrunner Rep. Andy Barr, who surged to 43-46% in May polls after President Trump's endorsement and Nate Morris's May 1 withdrawal with Barr backing. Democrats' Charles Booker leads their primary at 36%, but hypothetical matchups show Republicans ahead by double digits. Primaries on May 19 could clarify nominees for the November 3 general; rare shifts might arise from nominee scandals, health issues, or a national Democratic wave.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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