Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end of June, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations compared with peers. Google's Gemini updates and enterprise integrations account for the next largest share at 14.5%, while OpenAI's iterative GPT refinements sit at 9.4% amid questions over release cadence. xAI, DeepSeek, and smaller labs trail with single-digit odds, limited by narrower capability demonstrations and fewer third-party evaluations. Key upcoming catalysts include major developer conferences and any surprise model drops that could alter relative rankings before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 72%
구글 15%
OpenAI 9.4%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 거래량
$400,986 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
72%
구글
15%
OpenAI
9%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
마이크로소프트
1%
메타
1%
알리바바
1%
문샷
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
미투안
<1%
바이두
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
아마존
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
Anthropic 72%
구글 15%
OpenAI 9.4%
xAI 2.8%
$400,986 거래량
$400,986 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
$14,717 거래량
72%
구글
$5,648 거래량
15%
OpenAI
$34,207 거래량
9%
xAI
$14,892 거래량
3%
DeepSeek
$249,054 거래량
1%
마이크로소프트
$5,685 거래량
1%
메타
$4,186 거래량
1%
알리바바
$6,636 거래량
1%
문샷
$4,922 거래량
<1%
Z.ai
$9,323 거래량
<1%
미투안
$34,087 거래량
<1%
바이두
$4,429 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$5,557 거래량
<1%
아마존
$2,909 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$4,734 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end of June, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations compared with peers. Google's Gemini updates and enterprise integrations account for the next largest share at 14.5%, while OpenAI's iterative GPT refinements sit at 9.4% amid questions over release cadence. xAI, DeepSeek, and smaller labs trail with single-digit odds, limited by narrower capability demonstrations and fewer third-party evaluations. Key upcoming catalysts include major developer conferences and any surprise model drops that could alter relative rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
거래량
$400,986종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end of June, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations compared with peers. Google's Gemini updates and enterprise integrations account for the next largest share at 14.5%, while OpenAI's iterative GPT refinements sit at 9.4% amid questions over release cadence. xAI, DeepSeek, and smaller labs trail with single-digit odds, limited by narrower capability demonstrations and fewer third-party evaluations. Key upcoming catalysts include major developer conferences and any surprise model drops that could alter relative rankings before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$400,986종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 71.5% implied probability of fielding the second-best AI model by end of June, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have delivered measurable gains in reasoning benchmarks and safety evaluations compared with peers. Google's Gemini updates and enterprise integrations account for the next largest share at 14.5%, while OpenAI's iterative GPT refinements sit at 9.4% amid questions over release cadence. xAI, DeepSeek, and smaller labs trail with single-digit odds, limited by narrower capability demonstrations and fewer third-party evaluations. Key upcoming catalysts include major developer conferences and any surprise model drops that could alter relative rankings before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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