Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트Anthropic 67%
구글 24%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,416 거래량
$1,457,416 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
67%
구글
24%
OpenAI
5%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
알리바바
1%
메타
1%
Z.ai
1%
마이크로소프트
1%
문샷
1%
메이투안
<1%
미스트랄
<1%
바이트댄스
<1%
바이두
<1%
아마존
<1%
Anthropic 67%
구글 24%
OpenAI 5%
xAI 2.6%
$1,457,416 거래량
$1,457,416 거래량
2026.06.30
Anthropic
$30,607 거래량
67%
구글
$18,768 거래량
24%
OpenAI
$49,364 거래량
5%
xAI
$14,994 거래량
3%
DeepSeek
$201,408 거래량
1%
알리바바
$136,551 거래량
1%
메타
$8,184 거래량
1%
Z.ai
$412,936 거래량
1%
마이크로소프트
$11,912 거래량
1%
문샷
$203,394 거래량
1%
메이투안
$270,733 거래량
<1%
미스트랄
$59,379 거래량
<1%
바이트댄스
$12,849 거래량
<1%
바이두
$8,651 거래량
<1%
아마존
$17,686 거래량
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
마켓 개설일: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
거래량
$1,457,416종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
거래량
$1,457,416종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s April 16 release of Claude Opus 4.7, which posted the highest scores on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and demonstrated clear gains in complex software engineering, instruction following, and high-resolution vision tasks, has driven the current 67 percent market-implied probability that the company holds the top large language model by end of June. Recent data showing Anthropic overtaking OpenAI in enterprise adoption further reinforces trader consensus around its sustained lead. Google sits at 23 percent following incremental Gemini 3.1 updates and strong context-window performance, while OpenAI’s May 5 GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout has yet to shift the broader leaderboard enough to close the gap. With only six weeks remaining, any new capability demonstrations or benchmark results from these labs could still alter the tight secondary probabilities.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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