Banksy's consistent output of new street works supports the 80.5% market-implied probability for a fresh mural or artwork by year-end. The elusive artist confirmed multiple pieces in 2025, including a September mural at London's Royal Courts of Justice and a December stargazing-children piece in Bayswater that he verified via Instagram, continuing his pattern of timely, politically charged interventions. Historical precedent shows Banksy often produces several confirmed murals annually, frequently clustered around holidays or current events, with no recent signals of reduced activity or retirement. Traders appear to weigh this track record heavily against the roughly six-month window remaining, viewing another release as the baseline expectation rather than an outlier.