Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects growing concerns over Anthropic's Claude large language model uptime, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 6-8 days (39.5%), 12+ days (33.0%), and 9-11 days (30.0%) of downtime in May, following at least three confirmed incidents in the first half of the month: a major outage on May 8 disrupting access for hours, elevated error rates on May 14 across Claude.ai and API endpoints, and further issues early May 15 per the official status page. These disruptions stem from scaling pressures on Claude's infrastructure amid surging demand for advanced reasoning capabilities, compounded by reported compute shortages prompting partnerships like xAI resource sharing. While multi-model ecosystems offer workarounds via GPT or Gemini, Claude's reliability lags competitors, fueling bets on persistent outages through month-end absent major fixes; traders eye Anthropic's next status updates for resolution catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트12+ 31%
9-11 30%
6-8 20.5%
3-5 16.3%
$33,491 거래량
$33,491 거래량
2026.05.31
3-5
14%
6-8
38%
9-11
30%
12+
33%
12+ 31%
9-11 30%
6-8 20.5%
3-5 16.3%
$33,491 거래량
$33,491 거래량
2026.05.31
3-5
$3,858 거래량
14%
6-8
$1,093 거래량
38%
9-11
$659 거래량
30%
12+
$4,982 거래량
33%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects growing concerns over Anthropic's Claude large language model uptime, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 6-8 days (39.5%), 12+ days (33.0%), and 9-11 days (30.0%) of downtime in May, following at least three confirmed incidents in the first half of the month: a major outage on May 8 disrupting access for hours, elevated error rates on May 14 across Claude.ai and API endpoints, and further issues early May 15 per the official status page. These disruptions stem from scaling pressures on Claude's infrastructure amid surging demand for advanced reasoning capabilities, compounded by reported compute shortages prompting partnerships like xAI resource sharing. While multi-model ecosystems offer workarounds via GPT or Gemini, Claude's reliability lags competitors, fueling bets on persistent outages through month-end absent major fixes; traders eye Anthropic's next status updates for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
마켓 개설일: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
거래량
$33,491종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects growing concerns over Anthropic's Claude large language model uptime, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 6-8 days (39.5%), 12+ days (33.0%), and 9-11 days (30.0%) of downtime in May, following at least three confirmed incidents in the first half of the month: a major outage on May 8 disrupting access for hours, elevated error rates on May 14 across Claude.ai and API endpoints, and further issues early May 15 per the official status page. These disruptions stem from scaling pressures on Claude's infrastructure amid surging demand for advanced reasoning capabilities, compounded by reported compute shortages prompting partnerships like xAI resource sharing. While multi-model ecosystems offer workarounds via GPT or Gemini, Claude's reliability lags competitors, fueling bets on persistent outages through month-end absent major fixes; traders eye Anthropic's next status updates for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
거래량
$33,491종료일
2026.05.31마켓 개설일
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects growing concerns over Anthropic's Claude large language model uptime, with market-implied odds tightly clustered around 6-8 days (39.5%), 12+ days (33.0%), and 9-11 days (30.0%) of downtime in May, following at least three confirmed incidents in the first half of the month: a major outage on May 8 disrupting access for hours, elevated error rates on May 14 across Claude.ai and API endpoints, and further issues early May 15 per the official status page. These disruptions stem from scaling pressures on Claude's infrastructure amid surging demand for advanced reasoning capabilities, compounded by reported compute shortages prompting partnerships like xAI resource sharing. While multi-model ecosystems offer workarounds via GPT or Gemini, Claude's reliability lags competitors, fueling bets on persistent outages through month-end absent major fixes; traders eye Anthropic's next status updates for resolution catalysts.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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